Norman Podhoretz takes note of some questions about it:
…I entertain an even darker suspicion. It is that the intelligence community, which has for some years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush, is doing it again. This time the purpose is to head off the possibility that the President may order air strikes on the Iranian nuclear installations. As the intelligence community must know, if he were to do so, it would be as a last resort, only after it had become undeniable that neither negotiations nor sanctions could prevent Iran from getting the bomb, and only after being convinced that it was very close to succeeding. How better, then, to stop Bush in his tracks than by telling him and the world that such pressures have already been effective and that keeping them up could well bring about “a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program”—especially if the negotiations and sanctions were combined with a goodly dose of appeasement or, in the NIE’s own euphemistic formulation, “with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways.”
Me, too; I haven’t read the actual NIE, but it is reported that while the NIE is highly confident that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Iran continues to enrich a sort of uranium which is really only useful in a nuclear weapons program. In technical terms, to say something like that is known as bullsh**. Its like saying that the illegals have stopped trying to cross the border, but are still digging that tunnel under the fence…
Someone at State and/or CIA is merely trying to undercut the President’s stated policy of not allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Yet another lesson in the absolute necessity of any future GOP Administration to fire each and every person hired or promoted by a previous Democratic Administration. Aside from that, I don’t think this NIE will amount to a hill of beans as far as President Bush is concerned – it won’t be an NIE which decides what to do about Iran, but President Bush after carefully weighing all the available data.
Blogs For Victory 
How absolutely frickin laughable.
How absolutely frickin sad.
And you dare to mention conspiracies.
So tired of W and Cheney’s B.S.
Enough already.
How ridiculously ironic. Iraq revisited.
May the parents of all who lost children in this folly find peace. May the lover’s smile again. May the children cope without the missing parent.
Undercut my ass.
Sleep well wingers. Sleep well.
Mark,
I can see you now sitting at your computer with your tin foil hat on doing background checks on every employee in the State Deparmtent and CIA looking for the sabateur. I bet it was the same person who order Kennedy’s death!
I can’t wait to see how this post plays out.
Funny, Mark, how the left shows pure disdain for the intel community, except when they come up with something that makes Bush look bad.
Here’s your thread, sleazyjean–ready to do what you do best?
I guess, once again, that our lemming puke trolls cherry-picked the column, and extracted only what would satisfy their twisted rhetoric about Iran. The intel community has been undermining the Bush administration since we liberated Iraq. The intel community is littered with career beaurocrats, just as is the State Dept. A total housecleaning is in order.
Did anyone hear Reidtard’s comments? He called for a “surge” in diplomacy with Iran. Funny how this waste of human flesh can’t be original about anything. Of course, he’s a puppet for DailyKooks and MoreOn.
Sooo, what about Ahmedinejihad’s ongoing threat to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, and his continued support of Hezbollah?
The intel community could have it wrong, of course. The intel community could be working to undermine Bush, although that clearly wasn’t the case 4 years ago when a flawed NIE on Iraq came out.
Wishing something is true isn’t the same as something being true. Can those that suggest the NIE is wrong or politically motivated provide some evidence?
As to Ahmedinejad, I guess I have to point out that he doesn’t run Iran any more than Khatami ran Iran. He is a factor, but clearly not a controlling factor. Iranian nuclear work began under the Shah and has continued under all subsequent governments.
May the lover’s smile again.
May AgentFart–a pseudo-intellectual–learn the proper use of an apostrophe.
As to Ahmedinejad, I guess I have to point out that he doesn’t run Iran any more than Khatami ran Iran.
Soooo, if Dick Cheney ran around, threatening to wipe Iran or China off the face of the earth, your reply would be that “Cheney doesn’t run America any more than Gore ran America?”
Oh, I forget–you kooks already think Cheney runs America…
So you haven’t read the NIE, but you’re confident that the NIE is bogus. That’s first rate work there, Noonan, perhaps you could report on some other documents you also haven’t read.
Wait, I’ll do it first. I haven’t read Caucus of Corruption, but I’m confident that its a third-rate piece of wingnut trash.
Talk about paranoid. 16 intelligence agencies are conspiring against Bush?
The NIE also said Iraq was did not have WMD in 2001, but Chaney kept on kicking the report back until they changed it to reflect their invasion goals. Now the NIE is finally showing the courage they should have shown in 2001.
Damn that Mike McConnell!!!
From the declassified version of the NIE report:
We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.
We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.)
We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.
We continue to assess with low confidence that Iran probably has imported at least some weapons-usable fissile material, but still judge with moderate-to-high confidence it has not obtained enough for a nuclear weapon. We cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad—or will acquire in the future—a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon.
We assess centrifuge enrichment is how Iran probably could first produce enough fissile material for a weapon, if it decides to do so. Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006, despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program. Iran made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, but we judge with moderate confidence it still faces significant technical problems operating them.
We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely.
awww, the little wingnuts don’t get to have their next little war. Their toys have all been taken away.
Mark –
“Aside from that, I don’t think this NIE will amount to a hill of beans as far as President Bush is concerned – it won’t be an NIE which decides what to do about Iran, but President Bush after carefully weighing all the available data.”
And what data would that be? You’ve already decided that any data from the intelligence analysts and operatives will be tossed aside. So what data are we talking about?
Is Bush going to go to war on his gut feelings? Or does Junior get his Iran intel data straight from Jesus?
You turkeys are members of a cult in severe need of deprogramming.
Funny how the kooks here all live..only for the moment.
So, kooks, how long did it take Saddam or NK to assemble their nuke programs? Anyone know for sure….I thought not.
The problem with the lib mentality is, they dwell on the daily negativity supplied by the DBM-caused by BDS- and neglect the long term effects of negative attacks on our President (0-40 against congress), negative attacks on our Mighty Military (the surge is working).
From the outside, anyone in their right state of mind, would see this as a case of psychosis.
what im confused about is….
the iranians were digging HUGE underground complexes and scattering thier programs all over the country to prevent the loss of the technology from one massive air strike
so they have all this going on, we have all the satelite coverage in the world over iran (if we dont, we really are fools) as does Israel, and we know this is going on
so how does a US based intelligence agency that admits its lack of ground sources in iran assess this type of issue and declair that iran has no program?
this is akin to being a traitor, the guy who is responsible for this is both a liar and a traitor to all Americans everywhere
this declaration is a farce, and only interfers with US interests abroad
The self-styled “AgentFear” cracks me up. He reminds me of a total loser I once hired as a general contractor, before finding out that he had faked his credentials and was not only incompetent but a crook. He had an e-mail address that included the digits “007” and referred to himself as, among other things, the “Big Kahuna”. When all this pathetic posturing came out in the discovery before the lawsuit (which he promptly setttled out of court) it was hysterically funny. But as far as I know, even HE didn’t sink so low as to invent a comic book style character as an alter ego. (Though he did finally buy himself a wife in Russia so he could claim to be studly, though he had to steal money from an ex-girlfriend to be able to do so.)
The very idea of anyone finding the “agent” capable of inspiring fear is laughable. OK, so Mummy pwetended to be scawed when wittle agent said “Boo”, thereby instilling a very false sense of, shall we say, potency, never again to be confirmed. It don’t work now, “agent”.
AgentSilly indulges in yet more of the vile, baseless, but evidently satisfying (to a certain pathology) wallowing in blind loathing and total ignorance. And, as usual, makes no sense.
The fact that many agencies of the government are inhabited by radical Lefties is no secret. In the past few years, they have come out and shown their true colors over and over again, secure in the belief that in this day and age they will not be prosecuted. State and the CIA are notorious for their population of BS (Budding Socialist) members.
The tinfoil hats reside firmly on the heads of the rabid conspiracy-theorists trying so desperately to construct some Bush-led plot, and eager to believe even the most foolish and transparent concoctions of their fellow travelers if they advance the notions that feed their pathology.
The presence, and effect, of the rabid Left in our schools and government agencies is documented, and even a troll like the foolishly self-appointed Agent of Fear can’t deny knowing of the many examples of their efforts to undermine the government through leaks and the dissemination of false information. It’s just that one of the characteristics of the rabid Left is the willingness to simply ignore what is inconvenient and to rewrite history as needed to shore up the party line.
Talk about paranoid. 16 intelligence agencies are conspiring against Bush?
Sixteen intelligence agencies and reality! They’re all in on the conspiracy together! I mean, clearly, when they’re on one side and Bush is on the other, it’s reality and the intelligence agencies that are wrong because to Bushbots, Bush must always be right. When the facts don’t fit the wingnut narrative, clearly it is the facts that must be altered, not the narrative.
Well, at least Almiranta is still bringing some top-notch cluelessness. She actually followed up this:
The fact that many agencies of the government are inhabited by radical Lefties is no secret. In the past few years, they have come out and shown their true colors over and over again, secure in the belief that in this day and age they will not be prosecuted. State and the CIA are notorious for their population of BS (Budding Socialist) members.
with an accusation that it’s everybody else who is paranoid and “eager to believe even the most foolish and transparent concoctions of their fellow travelers if they advance the notions that feed their pathology,” not her. Yes, Almiranta, the entire government is in on an insidious socialist plot. Don’t fear those men in white coats, OK? They’re here to help you.
I believe issue here is the lack of competence and credibility in our intelligence agencies and what to do about it.
As it stands now various government ‘intelligence’ agencies have been either off the mark or totally wrong by their own admission about events leading up to 9/11, Iraqi WMDs, and now the Iranian nuclear program. As long as this dangerous pattern of misinformation continues our national security is in jeopardy.
The notion that intelligence has been manipulated for political means either way is even more frightening than if they just simply got it wrong on their own. Here the question would be why it is so seemingly easy to not just to skew, but to outright contradict the facts and present them to our government and the American people.
After 9/11 there was a major overhaul of our intelligence agencies to better coordinate communication. The next major overhaul is due and should focus on insuring that accurate, unadulterated information is gathered and presented to our decision makers before any catastrophic decisions are made based on either faulty or manipulated intelligence.
Well said, Tractatus!
I haven’t read everyone’s posts yet, but I have to say… How can anyone take any post seriously that starts like this…
>>>>I believe issue here is the lack of competence and credibility in our intelligence agencies and what to do about it<<<<<
Thats it Parker. It took them 4 years (since 03) to assess that Iran stopped its nuclear development program at the locations that they had these programs.
Its going to take them even longer to figure out if these programs were just moved to a secret location miles underground in an attempt to hide it.
I find a lack of credibility in the NIE’s report. Why didnt it go through intelligence channels like they normally do, instead of rush to the camera’s to expose just another report…..something is fishy here.
Aaron,
Your question is spot on. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is hardly some quick notes on the back of an envelope. Sixteen U.S. agencies contribute their efforts and the compilation of those are coordinated by the National Intelligence Council (NIC). Those 16 agencies include the CIA and elements within the Departments of Defense (9 elements), Energy (1 element), Homeland Security (2 elements), Justice (2 elements), State (1 element) and Treasury (1 element). The resultant document is then sent to the National Intelligence Board (NIB) which is headed by the Director of National Intelligence, currently Admiral John M. “Mike” McConnell, who was appointed by President Bush this year after careful review of his credentials by the White House. After review and, I can only imagine, various back-and-forths between the NIB and the NIC, the final document was presented to President Bush by Adm. McConnell.
So, for the “stab in the back” theorists here, apparently the President’s own appointee is “akin to being a traitor” and “a liar and a traitor to all Americans everywhere” because his responsibility as Director of National Intelligence (a position created by President Bush in December, 2004) is to oversee final approval of the NIE. It may be that President Bush’s appointee, Adm. McConnell, is suffering from “BDS” (Bush Derangement Syndrome), is a “radical left[y]” and needs to be a target of the “total housecleaning [that] is in order.” (I believe Joseph Stalin’s formulation might be the appropriate one for that view, “Death solves all problems – no man, no problem.”)
Now Mark, who is plainly capable of rationality, is reduced to a conspiracy claim:
Apparently, this elusive “someone at State and/or CIA” is not only trying to “undercut the President” but, by logical extension, desires the country of Iran “to obtain nuclear weapons”. Not only do we have this “someone” out there but they are so powerful in their ability to conspire that they can either, 1) co-opt the President’s own appointee and make Adm. McConnell part of the conspiracy, or 2) prevent Adm. McConnell from seeing through the conspiracy and sitting on the NIE until he can get it “corrected”. Honestly, Mark, do you own an autographed copy of J. Edgar Hoover’s Masters of Deceit?
Of course, the rational fall back position here for the conspiracy-minded is, “Okay, the NIE is correct, but Iran is still engaging in activities that could allow it to eventually build one or more nuclear warheads.” That could be what Mark was alluding to here:
This is fair enough. No rational resident of Planet Earth wants any more than the current nine nuclear-armed states. However, courtesy of Dr. A. Q. Khan of Pakistan, who was pardoned by President Pervez Musharraf in 2004 for his role in exporting nuclear weapons technology to Iran, Libya and N. Korea, we have cause to worry about Iran. Libya, without the use of military force, gave up its nuclear weapons program. North Korea has nuclear weapons and there is no talk of using preemptive military force against it. Now, we have reason to think Iran may be seeking to build nuclear warheads, but not soon.
So, what to do? The putative worst-case scenario is Iran gaining nuclear weapons with a desire to threaten its neighbors. Of course, having a nuclear weapon and being able to deliver it are different problems. The reality for a nuclear-armed Iran is that they know that they have Israel nearby with both the existing nuclear warheads (estimated between 75 and 200) and a highly capable ability to deliver them. They also know that they live within delivery range of any number of nuclear weapons from all the major nuclear powers (U.S., Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and India). While some number of Iranians undoubtedly hope to have nuclear weapons, there are just as undoubtedly some number of Iranians who realize that they can’t overtly use any such weapons without committing national suicide.
This leads us inexorably to the real “dark[] suspicion” of Norman Podheretz, a foreign policy adviser to Rudy Giuliani, and his admirers. Because they are from the Middle East (only 3% are Arabs) and the country is predominately Muslim then they are part of the inherently irrational Muslim IslamoFascist conspiracy that cannot be trusted to not commit national suicide in an effort to do…something…take over the world…make us all become Muslims…make me wear a burqa. Of course, it is useful to note that the very same relentlessness of purpose, complete lack of moral values and total contempt for America and the West were the hallmarks of the U.S.S.R. and “Red China” touted to us for decades. Of course, as we learned, the animosities felt towards us by the Soviets and Chinese were, as you would reasonably expect of human societies, not universally felt and varied over time based on our actions and their internal politics. Of course, this time, we are presumably assured, the conspiracy really is being run by people who are like that and we must be vigilant!
P.S. Let me save someone the trouble. Yes, I must be a “useful idiot”.
An actual quote by George W. Bush…
“I view this report as a warning signal that they had the program, they halted the program,” Bush said. “The reason why it’s a warning signal is they could restart it.”
So they halted the program, but they COULD restart it.
So obviously preemptively striking them is still an option, right???