What Are the Iranians Up To?

In all the hullabaloo over the primaries, this story might have got missed by some:

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) – The U.S. military has video and audio recordings of Iranian boats that threatened to blow up U.S. Navy vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and plans to release them, the top Navy commander in the Mideast said Tuesday. President Bush described the confrontation as a “provocative act.”

Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff disputed Iranian claims that the incident early Sunday was a routine encounter, saying Iran’s “provocative” actions were “deadly serious” to the U.S. military.

“It was a dangerous situation,” Bush told reporters at the White House. “They should not have done it, pure and simple. I don’t know what their thinking was, but I’m telling you what my thinking was. I think it was a provocative act.”

The confrontation was an unusual flare-up of U.S.-Iranian tensions in the Persian Gulf as Bush begins his first visit to the Mideast. In the tour, Bush is to visit Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab allies, in part to coordinate in confronting Iran.

Many Arab countries fear the Iranian-American rivalry could erupt into a military confrontation that would put them in the crossfire and hurt vital Gulf oil traffic.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that its high-speed boats never threatened the U.S. vessels during the encounter, insisting it only asked them to identify themselves, then let them continue into the Gulf. A Guards commander defended his force’s right to identify ships in the sensitive waterway.

Cosgriff, the commander of U.S. 5th Fleet, which patrols the Gulf and is based in nearby Bahrain, said the American vessels had already been identified by Iranian authorities earlier in the day before the confrontation occurred.

With the Cole incident at the back of all naval minds, such an event is highly disturbing. What seems like a mere harassing exercise could swiftly lead to one or more of these motorboats making a suicide run towards a US ship. One thing to keep in mind – US naval warships are designed to fight other naval warships, not motorboats. Our ships have limited capability of thwarting a close-in attack from a small, fast moving target. Some people have expressed dismay over the lack of violent reaction on the part of the Navy during the incident, but my bet is that our ships are ready for a missile attack, an aerial attack, a submarine attack…for all manner of attack, but for some reason no one has considered what to do when a motor boat comes at you in open, though restricted (the Straight is narrow, and has a lot of navigation hazards), waters.

Prudence would seem to dictate that we adopt a policy of firing on any identified Iranian surface craft which approaches within a set distance of a US ship – in other words, we figure out how far out we need a small, fast target to be in order to ensure its destruction, and then don’t let any such craft to come closer than that. On the other hand, the Iranian government might not be unified in its determination to challenge the United States – could be that part of the Iranian leadership realises that full scale war with the US is national suicide, and so they work to keep the aggressive elements of the Iranian government in check…but a shooting incident which the hard-core anti-Americans could exploit? That might tip the balance and convince even semi-moderate Iranians that they must fight. So, we have to tread with care here – and I’m glad that this is precisely what President Bush is doing. War there might be with Iran, but it should only start at a time and place of our choosing.

The larger picture must be kept in mind – and central to that larger picture is the huge strides of success being made in Iraq at the moment. Iraq is the central front in the War on Terrorism, and we must allow nothing to divert us from completing that mission – any threat to that mission must be dealt with severely, but before we go tangling with the Iranians, lets be sure we have all our forces ready for all contingencies. Don’t let the Iranians provoke us into a hasty strike.

142 thoughts on “What Are the Iranians Up To?

  1. Retired Spook's avatar Retired Spook January 9, 2008 / 9:30 am

    The Iranians are already accusing us of fabricating the video.

    Here’s my favorite Retired Army Spook, Ralph Peters’ take on the incident. I don’t disagree with him.

    but my bet is that our ships are ready for a missile attack, an aerial attack, a submarine attack…for all manner of attack, but for some reason no one has considered what to do when a motor boat comes at you in open, though restricted (the Straight is narrow, and has a lot of navigation hazards), waters.

    Although not specifically designed for such an application, I’m betting this would work just fine.

  2. js's avatar js January 9, 2008 / 10:27 am

    Our Navy has been outfitted to deal with these kinds of attacks Mark. They have these huge gattling guns that will shred these littel speed boats to splinters in a matter of seconds. Normally, they are used for anti-ship missles, and controlled by radar and computers. Im not sure if these same systems are used or if they have to manually fire on slower moving speedboats (much slower than missles).

    I really think they should have sunk a few of them though, it would have impressed our viability on the mullahs in Iran. As it is, they are probably runnin about like cocks bragging how they stood down the Evil Americans…..

  3. Retired Spook's avatar Retired Spook January 9, 2008 / 10:40 am

    js,

    Check my 3rd link above.

    Oh, and I don’t know for a fact, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mark served on an R2D2 equipped ship back in the 80’s.

  4. js's avatar js January 9, 2008 / 11:09 am

    In 80 they first got the Phalanx. Thats the one that can deal with this. Been in service for 2 decades now.

    I dont think the NIE will influence Active Military units so much as it did the public. Face it, the Intel business is beholden to the DNC for some reason. They just wont let go and do thier jobs right. Smells like the Chinese to me.

  5. Kahn's avatar Kahn January 9, 2008 / 11:26 am

    A .50 cal would be good enough. No use wasting the expensive bullets.

    They are testing our strength and resolve. A reasonable test to apply, given stuff I’ve seen our liberal friends post over the years.

  6. Bigfoot's avatar Bigfoot January 9, 2008 / 11:28 am

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Mark served on an R2D2 equipped ship back in the 80’s.

    Mark’s ship had one of these?

    Sorry, my inner Star Wars geek couldn’t resist. I think that this might be what Spook is talking about.

  7. js's avatar js January 9, 2008 / 11:43 am

    more like probing our defensive response and perimeter

    we should have opened up on them when they came with/in 500 meters (or 1k) and certainly immediately upon the transmission of hostile intent

  8. Retired Spook's avatar Retired Spook January 9, 2008 / 11:52 am

    A .50 cal would be good enough. No use wasting the expensive bullets.

    True, but the Phalanx would make pretty blue confetti out of those little speedboats; a .50 cal could only put holes in them. I mean, I’m just sayin’……..

  9. Chris Saccomanno's avatar Chris Saccomanno January 9, 2008 / 12:07 pm

    I know a lot of conservative sites are saying we should have sunk the ships, but if we had sunk the ships, this would have been the only topic discussed while Bush is over in Israel. The Iranians would have effectively derailed any productive discussions, which is what they would like to do, I’m sure.

    I watched the video and I’m sure there were dozens of guns pointed on the boats if they had gotten a little closer or moved directly at the Navy ships. The restraint of force is warranted in this new war. We need to get the Israeli-Palestinian non-sense solved to make any real gains in the GWOT.

    It’s a complex war and let’s keep our eye on the talks over Israel. The world needs this to work out in a real way (not a facade way like Clinton pushed on everyone).

  10. Kahn's avatar Kahn January 9, 2008 / 12:33 pm

    Chris – well said.

  11. Retired Spook's avatar Retired Spook January 9, 2008 / 12:34 pm

    It’s a complex war and let’s keep our eye on the talks over Israel.

    Yes, by all means, let’s keep having “talks over Israel.” I’m mean, sooner or later we’re bound to get it right — RIGHT? The jihadis respond so well to talks; it’s just a matter of saying the right words — RIGHT?

    On a scale of 1-10, the odds of solving the Israeli-Palestinian problem without large numbers of either Israelis or Palestinians assuming room temperature, is about a minus 1.

    I watched the video and I’m sure there were dozens of guns pointed on the boats if they had gotten a little closer or moved directly at the Navy ships

    Assuming a speed of around 45 knots, the Iranian boats were around 7 seconds from making impact with an American vessel. Laden with enough, or the right kind of explosives, they wouldn’t even have to make impact to do some serious damage. When, during that 7 second window, do you take the decision to pull the trigger? More importantly, how many American sailors lives is it worth if you’re a couple seconds too slow? We lost 17 sailors on the Cole. Try telling their families how important those Israeli-Palestinian talks are again. Sorry, there’s a time for talking and a time for doing. And there’s no question in my mind which this was. Ralph Peters nailed it.

  12. OhioOrrin's avatar OhioOrrin January 9, 2008 / 1:02 pm

    comon folks, think oil…the ultimate Iranian weapon.

    a few shots at tankers in the strait and bingo…

    …lloyds cancels the insurance!

    and to quote the Brad Pitt movie “Snatch” – “now we’re fu#^ed”

    they’re making a statement.

  13. js's avatar js January 9, 2008 / 1:14 pm

    Any time a potentially hostile vehicle comes within 1000 meters of a Navy Ship, its needs to be neutralized.

    Im surprised the Commanders of these 3 ships are still in command actually.

  14. Chris Saccomanno's avatar Chris Saccomanno January 9, 2008 / 1:20 pm

    Spook,

    If we don’t get the Palestinians and Israelis working constructively together (long shot, I know), then you can tell the families of thousands of more people in the future that we don’t have a clue how to prevent even more attacks.

    The Iraq war is all about pulling the legs off the Islamo-fascist spider. The Iraq leg is gone, the Al Queda leg has been weakened. The Iranian leg is still moving the spider, the Palestinian-Israeli leg is still very strong along with the popular support for terrorism in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, Europe, etc.

    It’s a long war with awful choices we must make. Which choice do you want in this? Sink the Iranian boats and derail all peace talks for the remainder of the Bush Administration or risk your warships which were in position to quickly sink these boats?

    Another thing, by not opening fire, we didn’t reveal our ship defenses and didn’t give the Iranians a lot to go on by testing full defenses. If we blast a boat, the other 4 go home and report where the gun fire came from. This is cat and mouse and will be for years.

  15. Retired Spook's avatar Retired Spook January 9, 2008 / 1:42 pm

    If we don’t get the Palestinians and Israelis working constructively together (long shot, I know)

    Long shot? LONG SHOT? That’s the understatement of the year. I’ve been witnessing attempts at this “long shot” my entire adult life, and I’m 63. There will never, let me repeat, NEVER be a negotiated peace between Israel and the Palestinians unless there is an unequivocal military victory by one over the other; PERIOD.

    Another thing, by not opening fire, we didn’t reveal our ship defenses and didn’t give the Iranians a lot to go on by testing full defenses.

    Take it from someone who spent over 2 decades in signals intelligence, they were electronically monitoring our every move, interior communications, fire-control radar, etc., either with their own techs or, as Peters says, with “rent-a-Russians”. My link to the Peters oped still says “awaiting moderation”, so I don’t know if my first post at 9:30 AM is visible to other commenters or not. Same with my link to the Fox News article and the Phalanx site. Apparently, as Ricorun has noted on numerous occasions, multiple embedded links seem to throw comments into moderation Purgatory.

  16. Mark Noonan's avatar Mark Noonan January 9, 2008 / 2:12 pm

    JS and Spook,

    Yep, the USS Conolly had “R2D2” – two of them…from what I can recall of where they were mounted, I don’t know if they could depress low enough to hit a speed boat at less than 1,000 yards…but the Phalanx wasn’t what I worked on…anyone with expertise out there who can enlighten us?

    We didn have M-60 machine guns which could be mounted, but they were kept locked up and only used when in a dangerous port area (Oman, Portsmouth, etc…). From what I can recall, we didn’t have much Johnny-on-the-spot ability to deal with a motor boat…though the newer ships might have ways of dealing with that.

  17. Magnum Serpentine's avatar Magnum Serpentine January 9, 2008 / 2:12 pm

    I have no clue as to whats really going on out there, I do not trust the military at all. Anything can be faked just look at the Gulf of Tonkin.

    If Johnson can fake an attack, anyone can.

    Extraordinary Claims require Extraordinary proof.

  18. Kahn's avatar Kahn January 9, 2008 / 2:14 pm

    RS, links have the same affect here. One is OK, but 3 or 4 and you’re on the list.

    Look – the Iranians didn’t come within striking distance. Just a little closer, and hell yes send them to Paradise. Otherwise, WE would have fired the first shot.

    As to testing our defenses, thats just silly. A three ship force like this could have swept them and a number of aircraft from the area. And oh, by the way launched cruise missiles at Iran’s refinery at the same time. Iran knows this. They played this game for real in the ’80’s and lost half their Navy. Really a story not enough Americans know anything about.

  19. Kahn's avatar Kahn January 9, 2008 / 2:18 pm

    Magnum, thanks for that. I knew that there were at least some liberal posters here that would say that.

    Would you be willing to write the letters to the families of dead sailors? You think it’s a video game or something? Ever seen the skin (or worse yet, felt it) come off a friend when you try to move him.

    You don’t trust the military. F’ing great. F’ you.

    Goes to what I was saying about testing our resolve. With Magnum in control, we would have pissed our pants and run away. Elections matter.

  20. Magnum Serpentine's avatar Magnum Serpentine January 9, 2008 / 2:52 pm

    Khan,

    1. I am not the President

    2. What is wrong with providing more proof of the incident. and it is true some of the film of the Gulf of Tonkin incident was actually unused film from an attack two days earlier. its easy to fake anything in this day and age.

    3. no sailors have died as far as I know.

  21. Rich's avatar Rich January 9, 2008 / 3:31 pm

    How much proof do you want Serpentine? We have video and audio, and the Iranians admit that there was an incident at this location, but they are downplaying the incident. What type of proof do you require to actually believe our military? Did you have to witness it yourself? I wish you would apply this same type of speculation to your numerous neo-con and republican conspiracies you so often regurgitate here.

  22. Magnum Serpentine's avatar Magnum Serpentine January 9, 2008 / 4:16 pm

    Rich

    Something that is not fakable. And testimonies from Sailors (Not officers) that are free to speak their mind.

    I generally agree that an incident occurred in the gulf of tonkin er I mean Persian gulf. I just wonder if it was as bad as the Johnson Administration, er i mean the bush Administration says it was.

  23. js's avatar js January 9, 2008 / 5:05 pm

    Im really getting a laugh at you guys who think this was a Bush/Cheney conspiracy to lie to Americans.

    Do you have one bit of info that leads to that conclusion, or is it just a problem in the liberal stream?

  24. Kahn's avatar Kahn January 9, 2008 / 5:27 pm

    OK Magnum. More proof than hundreds of witnesses, video, and audio tape as well as compter records and recordings of the radio traffic made elsewhere.

    Thanks magnum. GFY

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