Interesting and rather alarming article over at First Things by Steven W. Mosher about the collapse of birth rates around the world – the article is written in the form of an argument between Mosher and a lefty who insists that the concerns about the brith rate are actually just racists worried there aren’t enough white babies being born, but as Mosher points out, the demographic winter is spreading rapidly around the globe:
The unprecedented fall in fertility rates that began in postwar Europe has, in the decades since, spread to every corner of the globe.
Take Latin America, for example. The image of the loving Mexican mamacita surrounded by a passel of barefoot children remains scratched on the minds of Americans, even when it has largely vanished in the dusty pueblos of Mexico itself. Government-enforced sterilization campaigns, along with simple modernity, have dramatically shrunk family size south of the border in recent years. When I speak to American audiences, they are invariably surprised to learn that the average young Mexican family now numbers no more children than its American counterpart.
But Central and South American countries, too, are seeing their birthrates fall. Most Latin American countries are now rapidly approaching replacement rate fertility, if they are not already there, according to the United Nations Population Division (UNPD). Women in Brazil, the largest South American country, currently average only 2.3 children. The inhabitants of Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile are even less fertile.
Across the Pacific, China has become a byword for forced-pace population control. Since the early eighties, Chinese women have been allowed an average of only 1.7 children, a birthrate so low that by 2020 China’s median age will be older than that of the United States.
India’s de facto two-child policy is neither as well known nor as brutal as China’s. But this policy, in conjunction with simple modernity, has effectively brought the fertility rate down to about 2.8 or so. India is projected to reach replacement rate fertility in a decade or so.
The voluntary childlessness of the Japanese exceeds even the forced-pace population reduction of China’s one-child policy. With a total fertility rate of only 1.25, Japan is on the brink of a major demographic meltdown. Its population of 127 million has stopped growing and—if the birthrate continues at this low level—will soon begin to shrink at an alarming pace. A population bust, like an explosion, proceeds in geometric progression.
The old-age tsunami that is about to hit Japan will not spare other Asian countries. The Four Tigers—Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore—are already getting long in the tooth.
Wherever we turn in the world, we see the same general picture. The only seeming exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, where birthrates are still fairly robust. But Africa has another problem: It languishes in the grip of an HIV/AIDS pandemic, which is sending some nations, such as South Africa, into absolute population decline.
The latest forecasts by the UNPD show the number of people in the world shrinking by mid-century, that is, before today’s young adults reach retirement age. I am speaking here of the UNDP’s “low variant” projections—historically the most accurate—which show that the population of the world will continue to creep up until about the year 2040, peaking at around 7.6 billion people. This is only a fraction more—one-sixth or so–than the 6.5 billion that the planet supports at present. Then the global population implosion, slow at first, but accelerating over time, begins. We fall back to current levels by 2082 and then shrink to under five billion by the turn of the next century.
I first took note of this around the year 2000 – when I came across the “low variant” projection and noted that the global population in 2150 could be 3 billion people, less than 50% of what it is today. From what I understand, the “low variant” revolves around whether or not birth rates will continue to fall at their current rate – and since that time, I’ve seen no indicators of a reversal of the demographic trends. In short, the “low variant” does seem to be the way things are going – though we must always keep in mind that things may change.
But, of course, things won’t change just by accident – it took a consistent effort by governments and pressure groups to bring us to this condition, and it will take a similar effort to swing things the other way. In my view, we live in a pretty wrecked world – a century or more of leftwing influences have entirely destroyed the basis for civilization; and not just our civilization, but all civilization. That we still have a semblance of civilization is akin to the way the Romans had civilization in the late 4th century – only because the final crash hadn’t happened, yet.
We’ve bought a lot of lies over the past century – that we can in the normal course of events engage in uncommitted sexual liasons; that we can in the normal course of events divorce for the most trivial of reasons; that we can in the normal course of events consume massive amounts of pornography; that we can in the normal course of events use abortion and birth control to decouple sex from its procreative aspect; that we can in the normal course of events farm out the raising of children to day care and public schools…the net result of all this lying to ourselves is what you see in front of you: random school shootings; massive illegitimacy, serial divorce when people even bother to marry…and, most devastating, the lack of willingness to produce the next generation. And, by the way, how do I plead? Guilty – I bought the lie, too.
We can rebuild our world and reclaim our civilization from the ruins – but for us to do so, it will take a conscious decision on our part to stop lying to oursleves, and to start acting like real men and real women.
Blogs For Victory 
Deleted – insults author, but doesn’t actually engage in debate.
Deleted – off topic.
Demograhic Winter
I didn’t know that it was this bad all around the globe. I knew about the declining European, Canadian, Japanese populations but I didn’t know Latin and South America were this deeply affected.
In Mexico?!? I had no idea. How horrible!
The Four Tigers. I like that.
That’s about the way I see it. The only way we can rebuild our civilization is to as one turn to Almighty God and to Our Savior the Lord Jesus Christ. I think we will see pockets of revitalized Christianity and Christians all over the globe. They will be lights in the darkness.
Historically, birth rates always drop when people are facing economic ruin. When gold prices reach 1000 an ounce, you know another Great Depression is on its way.
The global economy cannot afford deregulation. Americans cannot afford the continual outsourcing of manufacturing and white collar jobs.
We cannot afford another Republican or a DINO in the White House because, let’s face it, they are just the puppets of big business.
so Mark – you have no children – this means either you are a virgin or you are horrible sinner that is going to hell
“that we can in the normal course of events use abortion and birth control to decouple sex from its procreative aspect”
which is it
Wow lib, how long have you been here? Mark’s wife has had several surgeries in the last years. I would say that they are probably waiting to make sure she is healthy. Atleast that is what I would do. By the way – how many do you have? Me – I couldn’t, at least not with out risking death (literally), and since I am not married, I followed my principles on not bringing a child into a single parent home.
“Historically, birth rates always drop when people are facing economic ruin. ”
Only a radical Lefty could try to spin the Left’s determination to control population growth and separate sex from procreation, as shown vividly and inarguably in every single argument they make for birth control and especially abortion, into a treatise on the terrible economy, as they see it or at least describe it.
But gee, isn’t most of western Europe a shining model of the successes of socialism? No nasty old neocons in Europe, by gum—yet their population rate has been declining for years. That is why France, for example, has had to import as many foreigners as possible, as its grandiose socialist commitments can’t be supported by its shrinking native population.
So if the socialist nations of Europe are not repopulating themselves due to “facing economic ruin” what does that say about the socialist model? The same one you are so intent on foisting off on us here in the U.S.?
That doesn’t even include China, that haven of communism—-“facing economic ruin”?
I’ll say this for Knee-Jerk Joe—he never shies away from spouting the Party Line, no matter how bizarre or simply goofy it may be.
The fiscal policies of the US effect the global economy.
China is rich in cash because the US outsourced all their manufacturing there. That is why the Chinese government has to limit families to having only one child.
Only 3 billion people in 2150, oh the horror how will the human race survive?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CW,
Errr, China started limiting childbirth decades ago. Are you even remotely aware of what is going on, or are you just a screwball coming here to clutter the blog?
Barrasso,
Only, as Freedom points out, by turning to God and starting to be like we’re supposed to be…you laugh, but the sociological disaster which is the demographic winter will cause massive suffering in the world…the end of the Roman empire wasn’t pretty, and neither will the end of our civilization be.
Mark Noonan | March 14th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
CW,
Errr, China started limiting childbirth decades ago
Even so, I believe China still has the highst population in the world.
the “low variant” projection and noted that the global population in 2150 could be 3 billion people, less than 50% of what it is today.
and what is the problem with this if 3 billion is the sustainable number at that time? who or what are you in competition with to have ever more human beings on the earth? population for population’s sake? explain your need for ever increasing growth vs., say, reaching a stable and sustainable number in the future.
and civilization is in ruins how? you want to return it to when or move it ahead to what?
Human societies for the last century have been set up as Ponzi schemes, always have more people in the next generation to care for the last generation, that only works in a world of infinite space and resources. The world will reach a point of collapse if we do not stop reproducing as well as a problem if we do, the problem is less I think to stop while ahead than to try to stop when the world has 20 billion people.
You can think all you want that we will be raptured up and god will stop all our problems but I would rather have more space than less space. Hooray for birth control.
Barrasso,
No one is advocating increasing population – but we’re not even replacing ourselves. Our economy is built on equal to/greater than…once it is “less than”, things will start to spiral downwards at a rapid pace.
Your foolish “horray for birth control” betrays a complete lack of understanding – your opinion, boiled down, is that human society is threatened by human beings; the real problem is despair, and birth control/abortion are despair writ large. Your narrow minded, depressing worldview which can be described as “I got mine and I don’t want anyone to mess me up” will be the death of all you hold dear – unless you wise up and start to THINK, you’re just going to be part of the problem.
Nate,
Return it to sanity, that is what me must do, if we are to survive. There was once a time in human history where the following would not only not be done, but wouldn’t even be thinkable:
1. Abortion as birth control.
2. Kids shooting their school mates.
3. Genocide.
4. Global sex traffic in underage children.
5. Random massacres by insane people.
6. People insisting that “being themselves” requires major surgery.
7. Divorce for “irreconcilable differences”.
8. People saying “divorce is good for children”.
9. A man fathering several children by several women and still be allowed in polite society.
10. Men divorcing their devoted wives in favor of marrying a trophy wife, and no social opprobrium is directed at them.
11. Illegitimate outnumbering legitimate children in some social demographics.
And on and on it goes – one nauseating social pathology after another. All of it the result of our buying a series of lies about humanity – and reform, change, can only profitably be done by ditching a lot of what we’ve been doing and rebuilding our society upon the Judeo-Christian principles it was originally built on.
Sunny,
Not for long – there is a massive imbalance between young men and women in China due to the “one child” policy resulting in a massive number of aborted female children in favor of having a male child. China is about to undergo a severe loss of population.
excuses excuses – produce children or go to hell Mark – your choice
Mark, you are absolutely correct. The social engineering experimment of the Chinese is about to blow up in their collective faces. They are facing a massive unfunded social and healthcare burden of the growing elderly population, far worse than anything the US is facing. Unemplyment in China is growing and a downturn in the world economy, or a goods boycott by the US would be disasterous. On top of everything else, the huge imbalance of males and females of childbearing age spells big trouble for their society and perhaps the world. They are spending billions to grow their military, and by all accounts will have a huge pool of single, testosterone filled males to staff it. Neighboring countries better hide their women and children.
Perhpas the only solution is to send the cast members of Queer Eye over to China in an effort to convert as many as possible to hairstylists and interior decorators.
french,
You’ll want to be careful there, because you will be judged as you judge. I, of course, have not said that any particular thing will send a person to hell other than the absolute – total rejection of God; which rejection can only be judged by God. On the other hand, you have just said that if a person doesn’t have children, they will go to hell…so, unless you’re out there having as many children as you can, you risk said judgement being visited on you because God honors our choices…
Mark asks CW “Are you even remotely aware of what is going on, or are you just a screwball coming here to clutter the blog?”
It’s Option 2, Mark–screwball cluttering. We’ve had plenty of comments on the sheer insanity of most of CW’s “comments”—he seems to reach around and pull them out of the back of his Jockey shorts, given their quality.
But french con is gaining fast. How anyone could spin your factual comments on the imbalance between males and females in China the way he tried—I guess, it was pretty incoherent—to spin it is beyond me.
I have my own opinions on the insistence of the Left on limiting population, but no one can deny that it is happening. From the overt efforts to promote abortion to the more subtle ploys like making fun of women who stay home to have and nurture children, there is a pattern of devaluing the family, starting with the child.
And we can see the results.
It is interesting—and this is just an observation, not an invitation to a fight—that it is conservatives in this country who are having more children, as well as keeping them out of the sewer of the public school system. So there is hope.
BTW, I just read a great article about a group of home-schooled teenagers having their version of a ‘prom’. They had a Civil War ball, with everyone coming in period costume, and it was a huge success—and the students talked about how they loved having the social event without having to put up with the problems of public schools. These are great kids—they really got into it, they studied the history, they worked on their costumes, they learned the dances, and they had a wonderful time, with home-schoolers from all over being invited.
Quite a difference from the current attitude of prom night being the night girls are supposed to give up their virginity, and lavish limos and heavy drinking.