The news story:
The presidential campaigns seemed like they were everywhere but Michigan a few months ago.
Democrats were avoiding the state, and the Republicans had come and gone. An early primary strategy adopted by leaders of both parties had backfired.
What a difference the passing of time makes.
Michigan television stations have aired at least $5.6 million in dueling TV ads in the last 2 1/2 months; the candidates, their wives and surrogates have the state on their itinerary for rallies, town halls and fund-raisers on an almost weekly basis; and the presumptive nominees are firing off waves of e-mail reactions every time Detroit’s automakers hiccup.
Michigan has morphed from political wilderness to campaign battleground central.
Need more proof? While Republican Sen. John McCain headed to Warren on Friday to talk to GM employees, the Democrats responded with no fewer than three countermoves: a letter from Sen. Barack Obama to UAW members, a news conference attacking McCain’s plan and an e-mail questioning the Republican’s record on incentives that might aid the industry.
“Michigan is going to be in play all the way, I think,” said Evan Tracey, the founder of Campaign Media Analysis Group, an Arlington, Va.-based company that tracks political advertising.
Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political analysts in Washington, has Michigan as a toss-up on his latest electoral college map; so does the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato and others.
Rasmussen shows Obama with a good lead in Michigan, but I’m with those who say that Michigan is a swing State…and, I’ll add, it is a State Obama cannot afford to lose. Without those 17 electoral votes, I believe that Obama’s challenge to getting 270 electoral votes becomes – not impossible – but very, very hard. There just aren’t that many Bush 2004 States which Obama really has a shot in…Colorado? Sure, it has 9 electoral votes. New Mexico? Yeah, Obama could win that, it has five electoral votes. See where I’m heading? Kerry got 252 electoral votes in 2004, 18 short of what he needed…Obama already has to take away Bush States in order to win. Lose Michigan and the need to increase by 18 becomes a need to increase by 35…even if McCain were to lose Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico, he’d still win it with an electoral vote to spare if he wins Michigan.
Will McCain win Michigan? I don’t know – we have to rate it a “leans Democrat” based on the fact that it hasn’t gone GOP at the Presidential level in 20 years…but the political gurus rate it a toss up, and that tells us something: forget any talk you might have heard of a coming Democratic blow out. If the GOP were about to get scorched, then McCain would be trying desperately to hold on to places like Georgia and Florida, not making a serious play for Michigan. Obama still has to be rated the favorite to win, but only because the GOP is still unpopular amongst the general voting population. If the GOP brand were just doing as usual in 2008, we’d probably have this thing close to sewed up. But, we’re not – so its off to the battle we go.
Since the start of this campaign season (ie, the day after the 2006 midterms) Democrats have consistently done everything they can to lose in 2008 – from refusing to end the corruption they allegedly ran against to being a defeatist on the war to being unable to pass any meaningful bills since they took over Congress, the Democrats have damaged their own brand…and then they went and nominated a good looking non-entity for President, who turns out to have a lot of skeletons in his closet. If we win this year, we GOPers will have to give a vote of thanks to the Democrats for helping us out along the way.
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