According to Real Clear Politics show the race varying from an 8 point Obama lead, to a 4 point McCain lead. What does this mean?
That no one really has a clue what is going on out there.
I look at it like this – there are just too many variables out there. Will the youth vote show up? Will blue collar Democrats vote for Obama or McCain? Will movement conservatives show up for McCain? Will President Bush’s unpopularity drag down GOP participation? Will the Democrat Congress’ unpopularity drag down Democratic participation? Will victory in Iraq help/harm McCain/Obama? Will oil/gasoline prices help/harm Obama/McCain? Will liberal women show up for Obama? Will hispanics keep on track for the Democrats, or will McCain have appeal to them due to his immigration stance? The only thing we can say with any certainty is that African Americans will turn out in high numbers and will give a super-overwhelming majority of their votes to Obama (if McCain cracks 5% of the black vote it’ll be a bit of a shocker). With so many variables out there I’m not surprised that a respected pollster like Ramussen comes up with a three point Obama lead while respected pollster USA Today/Gallup comes up with a four point McCain lead. I really don’t suspect any bias in the pollsters (except any Newsweek poll – they are universally and amazingly biased in favor of the Democrats – I’ll trust a Carville poll before I’ll trust a Newsweek poll) – they just don’t know and are doing the best they can.
Its also July and while this election seems to have been going on forever, it really doesn’t kick into gear until after Labor Day…and the high test doesn’t come until after the World Series is over. Between now and then, there is just so much which can and will happen, that all I can do at this point is rate the election a complete toss up and thoroughly enjoy the most interesting political year I’ve ever seen.
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