As I write this the latest news from Georgia indicates that Russia intends a complete subjugation of that nation and the imposition of a puppet regime.
While all decent people are disgusted with the Russian action, there is not much we can immediately do, at this point, unless we are prepared for full scale war with Russia. While Georgia is only about 300 air miles from northern Iraq, the real limiting factor on sending US forces to Georgia is the difficulty in getting American air power established in the area. The effort to do so would essentially mean challenging the Russians directly including, perhaps, bombing of Russian airfields near Georgia. A war between the United States and Russia would only have one conclusion – the utter defeat of Russia. Russia is playing the Great Power game but really lacks the military and economic wherewithall to play such a role – Georgia, quite honestly, is about the largest thing Russia can handle at the moment. Such a war, however, even with its foregone conclusion would be a long and costly struggle, with the risk that someone who is proving himself as insane as Putin might actually pull the nuclear trigger. So, while we must try to save an independent Georgia, our tasks for the future is to treat Russia in light of Russia’s actions.
It appears from Russia’s actions that Russia has embarked upon an attempt – in one form or another – to revive the Russian Empire. Given our ability to swallow hypocrisy these days, the Russians would present their new empire as a collection of independent States, just as the USSR pretended that the east European States were independent, and we went along with the fiction. In the year of 2008, we must not allow the world to slip back into a place and time where larger nations preyed upon smaller nations and made them colonies or protectorates – nor can we allow large countries to carve out spheres of influence amongst other nations. Russia is indicating it wants an empire, our task is to thwart them in this effort.
First and foremost is the exposure of the UN as entirely useless – if one member of the Security Council, wielding a veto over UN action, is determined to violate the UN Charter in letter and spirit, then the whole thing becomes an entire waste of time. There is no purpose in being in an international body which cannot do what it was designed to do. Of course, those who know realise that the UN long ago became moribund, but now its actually counter-productive, and its time for it to go. In its place should be – as long ago suggest by myself, and more recently by Senator McCain – a Leage of Democratic Nations. This would be a grouping of free nations and free peoples, pledged to the defense and expansion of freedom around the world – and most emphatically nations like Russia (and China, and Iran, etc, etc, etc) would have no place in it. Only by so doing will we have an international body which we can act for good in the world.
Secondly, we’ll want a larger military. Russia is feeling expansive, and so is Iran – meanwhile, China modernises its military and greedily eyes the wealth of Taiwan as a means of cutting its way out of the sea of bad debt China floats upon. We have to be prepared for a two front war requiring very large military establishments on opposite ends of the world. This will require several more active divisions for the army, at least one more for the Marines, quite a large number of aircraft for the Air Force and a major beefing up of the US Navy so that we can ensure absolute command of all the world’s seas no matter what combination of enemies we fight. Essentially, we’ll have to rebuild our military size to about where it was at the end of the Cold War, and perhaps even larger.
Third, we need to quickly strengthen the military side of our alliances in eastern Europe and do whatever we can to induce former Soviet Republicans to join NATO. We must surround the aggressor with such a large number of potential enemies that whatever military force he has at his disposal will be insufficient to meet all needs, and thus we can secure a cold peace. We’ll also give pause to Iran, China and other potential threats that we retain the power to deal with all contingencies.
As to why Russia has embarked upon this insanity, I don’t know – I hope they come to their senses, but we cannot rely on that. Russia has ranged itself, sadly, as an enemy of liberty, justice and basic human decency, and it is the task of the United States to contain this as far as possible and hope that some day the Russians will wake up and take full charge of their own future, no longer turning themselves over – body and soul – to whatever Czar promises to raise them to the peak of power in the world.
UPDATE: Richard Beeston at Times Online tells the true state of Russia in 2008, and it ain’t a pretty picture.
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