The nightmare Obama doesn’t want:
A determined crowd of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s delegates – preparing to head to the Democratic Party’s national convention in Denver – have begun gathering signatures to ensure her name is placed into nomination, insisting their effort won’t take spotlight off presumed Democratic nominee Barack Obama.
Many of those involved in the campaign, which they say is a matter of respect and acknowledgement of 18 million voters who backed Clinton, argue that the nomination of the New York senator is a matter of historic and political precedent at such party conventions. And they’re chafing at reports that the campaign of the Illinois senator is resisting the efforts – and even hoping to avoid a roll-call vote.
“Since 1884, we’ve had a roll-call vote. … It’s a nominating convention, not a coronation,” said Garry Mauro, the four-term Texas land commissioner and past gubernatorial candidate who ran against George W. Bush – and who will go to his 10th Democratic national convention this month as a Clinton delegate.
With less than two weeks until Aug. 25, when Democrats open their nominating convention in Denver, the sentiment is typical of many Clinton delegates who say the nomination of the New York senator from the floor of the convention doesn’t endanger Obama’s presidential campaign – and could serve his cause.
The problem, for Obama, is that it would (a) expose the divisions between his troops and Hillary’s, (b) take time away from a pro-Obama love-fest and (c) open up the real prospect that Obama will fail to garner a nominating majority on the first ballot. Remember, in actual pledged delegates, Obama is short of the number needed for a first ballot nomination…only when you add in his superdelegates is he over the top, and they can change their minds. If by some means Obama fails to garner that first ballot majority, then he’s probably out as the Democratic nominee – this doesn’t mean that Hillary would be in, but once done for Obama, he becomes political kryptonite; the messiah who couldn’t carry out his appointed task.
The fissures in the Democratic party are very real – the dividing line between between upper clase urban liberals and blue collar Democrats. Picture in your mind a delegate from San Francisco who works on some sort of city divsersity council and a delegate who works as a union electrician in Philadelphia: how much do these two people really have in common, other than – perhaps – a loathing of President Bush? Obama is already going to bleed a lot of blue collar support over to McCain (which he hopes, then, to make up by securing the votes of the more urban and socially liberal section of the GOP), but he’d like to limit his losses on this end with an eye towards retaining Michigan and Pennsylvania and having a shot at Ohio. Have a blue collar stampede to McCain and Obama might as well start writing his concession speech.
This makess for a tricky situation, and just as a political observer it will be interesting to see how Obama works it – he has to bow to Hillary’s supporters while keeping the spotlight on himself. It’ll be fun to watch.
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