According to Rasmussen:
The race for Pennsylvania’s 21 Electoral College votes is tied.
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 47% of the vote (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members). Eighty-three percent (83%) of Obama voters are certain they will vote for him and not change their mind before Election Day. An identical percentage of McCain voters say the same thing.
A week ago, Obama was up by two points after holding five percentage-point leads in August and July.
The latest poll finds the Republican candidate is viewed more a bit more favorably among voters than his opponent. McCain is viewed favorably by 60%, up three points from a week ago. Obama’s ratings are at 52% favorable, down three points.
If McCain starts to pull ahead in Pennsylvania, he can start measuring for Oval Office drapes and Obama can start work on Volume Three of his autobiography, I Spent a Billion Dollars Running for President and all I Got Was a Lousy $20 Million Advance for This Book.
Seriously, though, Pennsylvania is that crucial for Obama – if he doesn’t win it, then that pretty much is all she wrote. There’s a chance Obama would be able to make up that 21 EV’s somewhere else, but such a thing would be the oddest of circumstances. Meanwhile, if McCain were to win Pennsylvania then he could lose Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico and still win the White House. Right now, smart money would still rate Pennsylvania as “leans Democrat”, given its long history of voting Democrat for President…but its also a strongly pro-life State with a lot of blue collar Democrats who have never been too enthused for Obama and who are, also, turning out to be more and more enthused for Palin.
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