Blogs For Victory

According to MRG, via NRO’s The Corner:

Michigan is a complex and difficult state to poll in, and one of the few polling firms who seems to “get” Michigan is Marketing Research Group (MRG).

Their latest poll has McCain/Palin up in Michigan by three points. Some interesting tidbits from the press release:

The poll showed that Obama continues to show strong support among women (+2%), young voters (+16%), African Americans (+89%), voters living in the Detroit Metro area (+9%) along with his traditional Democratic base.

John McCain is showing strength among blue-collar voters (+10%), men (+9%), white males (+29%), conservatives (+62%) and voters living in West Michigan (+12%) and the Flint/Saginaw/Bay City Area (+8%)…

…Voters believe the McCain/Palin ticket has more experience (61% – 31%) than the Obama/Biden ticket and they trust their judgment more (48% – 41%). But when it comes to bringing the right kind of change to Washington, the voters are split, giving the Obama/Biden ticket a one-percent edge (44% – 43%).

I find it kinda hard to classify a 2 percentage point advantage among female voters as indicative of “strong” Obama support among women but, be that as it may, if this poll is correct then its horrific bad news for Obama – he can’t be elected President without Michigan’s electoral votes (I was going to say “it is almost certain” Obama can’t win without Michigan, but then I thought about it for a bit and realised that Obama without Michigan victory scenarios would be to put a whole new meaning on “thread the needle”).

While ABC is attempting to boost Democrat morale by putting out an overweighted-for-Democrats poll showing Obama up 9 nationally, the fact that most tracking polls show a toss up and battleground State polls continue to show an advantage for McCain indicates that the shift we saw in the election after the Palin pick is still ongoing, and doesn’t look like it will be undone before the election. Does this mean McCain wins? Not at all – but it does mean that, right now, the battle is evenly drawn with a slight advantage to McCain as the American people tend to root for the underdog and McCain has been that for a year now.

If we win this election I’ll put it down to several factors – McCain, Palin, GOP, American common sense, America’s bedrock conservatism…but I’ll also add that the extreme nastiness of the left (from mere verbal cruelty to outright treason) seems to have turned off a lot of people. In 2008, Democrats should have had this election in a walk over – but they don’t, and their odds of winning are shrinking rapidly (Rasmussen’s market on Obama once had him with about a 65% chance of winning, now its a bit under 52%). Lies (and nastiness) can go from Maine to Florida befor Truth gets it’s boots on, but Truth will out, in the end.