From the Las Vegas Review-Journal:
Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.
The poll, conducted by Las Vegas-based consultant Steve Nathan’s firm Dialing Nationwide Automatically, or DNA, was conducted by automatically dialing everyone who had voted through Friday, based on statewide voter records, and weighting responses to reflect the composition of the electorate so far.
Nathan said the statewide numbers were based on 7,147 responses to the survey. He said McCain was getting much of his support from rural and Northern Nevada.
Experts caution that it is important to take such data with a grain of salt because it reflects only who has voted, not who intends to vote.
Indeed – a few grains of salt should be added, but here’s the interesting thing: Obama leads in early voting 50% to 48%, while the party ID in Clark County (the place where Obama must do well to win the State) has been 55% Democrat, 29% Republican – which indicates a substantial number of Democrats are voting for McCain. Translate this to election day and around the country, and McCain will pull off a huge upset.
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