Perhaps:
The L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll, which had Obama up by three points in Florida three days ago, is now reporting that McCain has a 49-45 lead among Floridians who have already voted. And this after Governor Charlie Crist extended early voting at the urging of Florida Democrats.
Obama supporters are always at the ready with some “effect” whenever McCain sees a downtick in numbers. So let’s play the same game: Could we be witnessing the Biden Effect? The Plumber Effect? The Khalidi Effect? The Wait, This Guy Has Said Some Scary Things Effect? The Infomercial Effect? The Who Exactly Does He Consider Rich Effect? Maybe it’s The Liberal Media Emotionally Blackmailed Us into Lying about Who We Were Going to Vote for Effect? They all have promise!
I think this would be the Our Polling Model for 2008 Is So Far Off as to Amount to Journalistic Malpractice Effect. Honestly, I don’t think there will be that many more Democrats in the voting mix than there were in 2004 – the enthusiasm Obama brings among African-Americans and upper class whites is counterbalanced by the un-enthusiasm he generates amongst blue collar and older Democrats. And even that wouldn’t be the whole story as no one – not even the most savvy observer out there – knows how many Democrats will show up and actually vote McCain. Obama is in the lead, as far as polling goes, but only that far – right now, I won’t make a prediction about who will win but I will say that both of them have very reasonable paths to 270 electoral votes.
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