The Bad News for Obama and His Democrats

Mark Noonan

From NRO’s The Corner:

Today on Uncommon Knowledge, Peter Thiel, captain of capitalism, on the current state of the political economy.

Peter Thiel: The timing for Obama is not as good as it was for FDR in the 1930s. Roosevelt took office in March 1933, the point where unemployment peaked. Things were going to get better anyway. He got all the credit.

I do not think that unemployment will peak in January 2009 [when Obama takes office]. It will be as if FDR got elected in the fall of 1930. Something like this happened in the UK. The Labour Party won in late 1929, but it was thrown out in mid-1931 and the Conservative Party ran the UK for the next fifteen years.

Peter Robinson: But you wouldn’t expect Republicans to win control of either chamber of Congress two years from now, would you?

Peter Thiel: No, but I think they will make very big gains and will most likely win in 2012.

This is a very likely scenario – Obama is going to have to make things work, and his problem is that he’s a liberal and everything he’s likely to try will probably make things worse. I figure the GOP at a 50/50 shot for control of the House in 2010 under any circumstances…and if unemployment is at, say, 7 or 8 percent come September of 2010, then just watch out.