Blogs For Victory

Can’t think of anyone better:

Meg Whitman fired the starting gun on the race to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger as California governor on Monday when the former chief executive of eBay abruptly resigned from the boards of three companies.

Ms Whitman, who continues to own a 2 per cent stake in eBay, the internet auction site, worked on John McCain’s presidential campaign and has privately expressed interest in running for California governor in 2010 as the Republican candidate.

Her resignation on Monday from the boards of eBay, Procter & Gamble and DreamWorks Animation is the clearest signal yet that she is considering a run for the post.

“She’s potentially a very credible candidate,” said Dan Schnur, a Republican strategist who worked on Mr McCain’s presidential campaign in 2000. “She attracted very positive views as a surrogate for McCain last year and has developed a very extensive political network.”

The election in November next year for one of the most powerful positions in American politics promises to be hotly contested. Term limits will prevent Mr Schwarzenegger from running a third time but a range of other candidates are contemplating campaigns for governor of a state that would be the world’s eighth largest economy if it were a separate country.

In the Democratic corner, Antonio Villaraigosa, the mayor of Los Angeles and an ally of Barack Obama, and Gavin Newsom, the mayor of San Francisco, are considering running.

Diane Feinstein, California’s senior senator, would be the overwhelming favourite if she stood as the Democratic candidate. However, she was recently nominated chairman of the powerful Senate Intelligence Committee, becoming the first woman to lead it in its 32-year history. Having secured that role, she is considered unlikely to mount a campaign for state governor.

Liberal as California is, I can’t imagine Whitman losing to Villaraigosa or Newsom, while Feinstein would be a heavy favorite to win if she were the Democratic nominee. Villaraigosa’s racist, anti-American background does him no harm in Los Angeles and would be a plus for him in San Francisco, but won’t play in the rest of the State. Newsom would probably lose Los Angeles (though doing very well in the ultra-liberal ‘burbs of Brentwood, Malibu, West Hollywood, etc.). Feinstein would entirely shut the GOP out in San Francisco and Los Angeles and make a huge play for the GOP strongholds of the inland empire and Orange County. Meanwhile, Whitman is the sort of person a California GOPer and moderate likes – successful, but not brash; sort of conservative, but not too much.

In a Feinstein/Whitman contest, I’d lay money on Feinstein, but wouldn’t count Whitman out – though even against the weaker candidates, Whitman will carry the millstone of Schwarzenegger ’round her neck just as McCain had to carry Bush’s legacy in to November. On the other hand, California Democrats have been making such a hash of things, and Schwarzenegger has moved so far left, that it might be possible for the GOP in 2010 to tie the Govinator to the Democrats and run against the whole mess in Sacramento (and, Arnie – love ya, buddy…but you should have stuck to your fiscal conservative guns).

This is just the first in what I believe will be many strong GOP candidates to announce for major offices in 2010 – in the normal course of events, the GOP will have a bounce-back from our drubbing in 2006/08. Add in a possible recession stretching in to 2010. Add in possible Obama meltdown as President. Add in a strong GOP message with interesting and new faces and voices. Mix that all together and we could get the perfect GOP wave.