Mark Hemmingway over at NRO has a rundown of the potential race between newly appointed Senator Gillibrand and possible GOP challenger, Rep. Peter King.
As noted in the article, a race between Any GOPer and Caroline Kennedy would be a race GOPers would pay to be allowed to run in – nothing more fun than taking on the clueless scion of a worthless, ultra-liberal political family long shorn of its glamor. But a race against Gillibrand, who has a conservative reputation, has a different dyanmic – if Gillibrand’s conservatism is more than just the result of not being as kook lefty as most New York Democrats.
The American Conservative Union gives King a moderately conservative 76 lifetime rating – which means as a Senator he will routinely annoy the GOP base outside of New York, but that he fits well with the politics of New York State. The ACU, on the other hand, gives Gillibrand a lifetime rating of 8. No, I didn’t forget a number – 8, as in e-i-g-h-t.
Now, there’s not much to go on so far – Gillibrand has only one House term under her belt, so she’s a stealth candidate with allegedly conservative credentials clearly picked with an eye towards the likely mid-term dynamic of 2010 which will have at least an anti-Democrat tinge to it (and a possible anti-Democrat wave) which would make most NY Democrats sure losers in a race against a moderately conservative GOPer.
I figure with Caroline we would have had a 90% chance of taking the seat – but with Gillibrand as the Democrat empty suit, I rate our chances at 60/40 against. But still well worth the effort.
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