Jennifer Rubin takes a stab at it:
…Democrats and their media spinners, who just days before the race declared this would prove the president’s enduring popularity and the electoral potency of his stimulus plan, have grown hushed. They mumble that it doesn’t mean much of anything. Just move along; nothing to see here.
But in fact it may mean something important. When a district which voted Democratic by a 62-38% margin drops to 50-50% in five months something is happening.
Stu Rothenberg declared “Tuesday night offered Republicans a small but important bit of evidence that they have turned the corner.” And he disputed the Democratic spin that registration figures favoring the GOP make this a supposedly “safe” district for Republicans, noting that Barack Obama and Kirsten Gillibrand carried the district in 2008 as did Democrats Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton in 2006, and Sen. Charles Schumer in 2004. He notes:
Talk of a stunning Murphy surge from far back is ridiculous and ignores normal campaign dynamics. … I can’t see why Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine would be confident that Murphy will expand his lead. I don’t know who will eventually win, but more Republican than Democratic absentee ballots have been received, according to GOP sources…
…The National Journal’s Hotline echoed this theme:
But whether Scott Murphy (D) or Jim Tedisco (R) ultimately emerges from the morass of attys and absentee ballots as the NY-20 victor, new polling suggests GOPers may be the ones with bragging rights. … But almost as important for GOPers, our polling shows that indies are now up for grabs. That bears out what we saw in NY-20, where, according to the last Siena poll, Tedisco actually led among indies. When was the last time GOPers were competitive among these voters? It’s been awhile.
The party failed in ‘06 and ‘08 because its base was apathetic and because indies moved en masse to Dems. If the base reactivates, and if the party can continue to stay competitive among indies, ‘10 could get interesting.
What the results show, to me, is that the 30 or Democrats who are currently representing seats which were fairly safe GOP prior to 2006 are in deep trouble as long as Obama is pushing hard core leftism in economics. While such districts may not be open to a GOP comeback based on social issues, they are open based on economics – and, right now, Obamunism sucks eggs with fiscal conservatives and economic libertarians. A properly crafted GOP message on what will almost certainly be the core issue of 2010 – the economy – could lead to a GOP gain of 30+ seats, and perhaps even a GOP House majority. The Senate is more problematic as there are vulnerable GOPers…but now that Dodd is in trouble and NY and IL will have Senate races, things might work out to a significant GOP gain there, as well (though I’d put a GOP Senate majority in the realm of “miracle”).
As the economy continues to tank and 2010 approaches, look for the vulnerable Democrats to seek cover – but there are also stories out there where the left, convinced that Democrats will win big in 2010 (where they get this idea I have no clue – its monumentally stupid, but leftists seem to take it as an article of faith that the nation has swung hard left and will just become more so as time goes on) are already putting pressure on centrist Democrats to toe the Obamunist line. Caught between two fires, “blue dog” Democrats might be crushed utterly…with the few survivors switching to GOP after the 2010 election.
As for what is best for the GOP – I’d like to see 46 GOP Senators and 210 House GOPers…just enough to thwart the worst of Obamnuism, but not enough to allow Democrats off the hook for full responsibility as we head towards 2012. If Obama’s programs work out as bad as I think they will then a Democrat-controlled government in 2012 will be toxic and if we GOPers then craft a good campaign we’ll win a crushing victory, and then have the power to revolutionize American politics by making American government more in tune with the Founder’s principles.
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