Stuart Rothenberg rates the GOP chances of securing a House majority next year at zero – and he’s not kidding; he’s dead certain that there is absolutely no chance that the GOP will secure the 40+ seat net gain necessary for a majority. Why? Because Rothenberg, wise political observer that he is, notes that for such a massive change in seats, you need a “wave”. Meaning that you need some groundswell of popular disapproval of the incumbent party to carry otherwise no-chance/low-chance challengers over the finish line. This is true, by the way. But is there no wave in the making? Lets take a look at how the Democrat governor of very liberal (Obama by 26 points) Massachusetts is doing:
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, embroiled in a budget crisis like many state chief executives these days, may need to be thinking about another line of work.
Just 33% of Massachusetts voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for the Democratic incumbent if he seeks reelection in 2010.
Nineteen percent (19%) say they’re not very likely to do so, and 38% say they aren’t likely at all to vote for Patrick, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Bay State voters.
One-third of the state’s voters (34%) now approve of the job Patrick is doing as governor, including only eight percent (8%) who Strongly Approve.
To say that Governor Patrick is “vulnerable” is to understate things quite a bit – unless things turn around massively for him, then the GOP will have no one but themselves to blame if they don’t find a candidate to win the governorship next year. There does seem to be the raw material in Massachusetts for a GOP wave in that State…and if the GOP ends up doing well in Massachusetts, can the GOP then end up doing less well in, say, Ohio, Virginia and Missouri? I suppose its possible, but it doesn’t seem probable.
Part of Rothenberg’s confidence is that Obama’s approval ratings run from 55% to 65% – what Rothenberg doesn’t mention is that the 63, 64 and 65% approval numbers in the most recent Real Clear Politics average are polls of “adults”. The 55% approval rating is from the one poll in the mix of “likely voters”. Now, any President is delighted to have 55% approval ratings from likely voters – such a President, in an election year, is likely coasting to re-election. But 2010 isn’t an election year for Obama, and the stark fact is that Rasmussen – the source of the 55% approval rating – has Obama’s “strongly approve” number dropping from about 45% on January 20th to 37% most recently, while the “strongly disapprove” number has climbed from about 15% to 31%. In other words, its not all rosy for Obama. While the American people are still cutting him some slack as the new guy and giving him his chance, if there’s no general improvement in American economic life (and/or if there is a serious military/national security setback) by the middle of 2010, then Obama’s popularity simply won’t be able to sustain its current levels. Obama boosts Democrats in 2009, but he might not do so in 2010, even if he’s not dragging them down.
So, what have we got? We’ve got Democrats in trouble in normally safe areas (Patrick in Massachuetts, Reid in Nevada, Dodd in Connecticut, eg), we’ve got a still-popular Obama suffering continual erosion of his support and, as it turns out, the “generic ballot” question has been pretty much tied up between Republicans and Democrats for a couple months now. Political junkies will instantly realize that this is a serious event, in and of itself: usually, the “generic ballot” favors the Democrats by a significant margin. Right around election day, the “generic ballot” gave the Democrats a 47% to 41% advantage…now its 39% for both sides (meaning, of course, that the GOP isn’t ragingly popular, either). Cobble together a weakening Obama, weakened incumbent Democrats and a general dismay with Congress and you have all the tools necessary for a wave. The question: Can the GOP capitalize on this?
The answer? Beats heck out of me. What it will take, first and foremost, is leadership. Back in 1994 – love him or hate him – the GOP had the superb leadership of Newt Gingrich. The GOP managed to distill the national issues down to a few quick points and then ran a very effective, anti-DC campaign against a corrupt and out-of-touch Democrat Congress. The Democrat Congress heading in to 2010 is just as corrupt and out of touch as the 1994 Democrat Congress and there are plenty of excellent issues for the GOP to run on (government spending, taxes, waste, corruption, etc, etc, etc), but there is, as yet, no clear GOP leadership. There is no one to lead the charge.
Given the current lack of leadership for the GOP, I rate our chances at a House majority at no better than 10%, with a Senate majority out of the question. On the other hand, even with weak GOP leadership, I figure we’re in for 20 House seats and three or four Senate seats. How to turn 20 in to 40 is the question the GOP must ask itself, and find the answer. We’ve got a few more months left to shake things out and think things over…but come Christmas, if we’re not ready to come out political guns blazing from January on, then we’ll be passing up what could be a great opportunity.
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