Uncle Jimbo over at Blackfive gives a short, excellent run-down of what we’re doing there:
There are signs that our military leaders have learned lessons from both our 7 years of operations in Afghanistan and our successes in Iraq. They have begun a major shift in strategy and tactics to reflect that. We have discussed some aspects of it here including the decision announced to limit bombing of residential dwellings even if we are receiving fire from them. While this decision may seem counter-intuitive at first. when examined in the framework of a larger shift toward safeguarding populations v. killing bad guys it becomes very understandable.
This same change in Iraq, to take territory and then stay there alongside the populace, was instrumental in shifting public opinion in Iraq. In conjunction with increased security from local forces it led to our ability to let the Iraqis take care of themselves. A similar strategy is now being employed in Afghanistan, but faces many more challenges. The Afghan security forces are near useless as currently constituted. Tribal issues make it almost impossible for any national forces to be used in an area where they are not native. Our training efforts have focused on attempting to put together Afghan police and military units but the problem is that other than perhaps Hamid Karzai there are no Afghans. There are a patchwork of tribes and villages and cliques that speak different languages, hold centuries long beefs and don’t see themselves as part of this larger, artificial thing we call Afghanistan.
That last bit is important – and provides a clue on what we should be shooting for in Afghanistan. Now, we don’t want to bulldoze into Afghan’s decisions, but we can encourage – and I believe we should encourage a Canton system such as that which exists in Switzerland. Keep in mind that the Swiss kept it together – by keeping a bit apart, internally – when Europe was riven by sectarian strife during the Reformation. Swiss Protestants and Catholics yet managed to remain in the same country while elsewhere bitter civil war was the order of the day – and the religious divide was only one of several within the country. A common currency, free internal trade, a common foreign policy, a common national army (the trickiest part, but it can be done – if the army remains small and highly professionalized)…but within each Canton, a maximum amount of local control with no interference from the central government. Allow time to ease the sectarian and tribal strife until, as in Switzerland today, the prospect of a split in the country is just unthinkable (and keep in mind, it took centuries for the Swiss to reach this condition).
One way or another, Afghanistan must not be allowed to slide back into chaos and/or Taliban-al Qaeda control. Take ten years, take 100,000 more troops – whatever the price to be paid, victory is worth it because defeat would be a catastrophe for the United States and the whole world…imagine Islamo-fascism sweeping into Pakistan and central Asia, armed with nuclear weapons and convinced that victory over the US is assured. Its not something we want to contemplate.
Now, will President Obama have the courage to carry on? The wisdom to pick out the right policy?
Time will tell.
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