The reduction expected in the number of people working in calendar year, 2010:
Based on CBO’s forecast for the average unemployment rate in calendar year 2010, 2.3 million fewer people will be employed on average next year than they projected in January.
For comparison, in July there were about 140 million people employed in the U.S.
Next year’s reality will depend heavily on when the economy turns up and how quickly growth returns. A new projection of fewer people employed next year should not surprise anyone. But 2.3 million is a big bad number.
And this is, actually, the “other shoe” – the first shoe is the fact that by the end of the year more than a million Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits. This latest CBO estimate shows that their chances of gaining new jobs is going to be a lot smaller next year.
It piles up – one thing on top of another. What does it come out to? That we’re in a serious economic mess – and, right now, we’re doing nothing to change the course of events. We will get an official recovery from the recession – likely with the third quarter, 2009 GDP results. But it will all be smoke and mirrors and it won’t be enough, even in fantasy, to compensate for what we’ve lost in terms of wealth. And the worst part of this is yet to come – and I expect it by March of 2010: a collapse of the current global stock market bubble, dragged down by renewed bank failures resulting from the commercial real estate collapse and a new surge in home foreclosures as people walk from their “upside down” houses.
The most hopeful estimates I’ve been able to find are for our economy to cease collapsing and then meander along with high unemployment for years – and, friends, that is the hopeful estimate: that it won’t get any worse! If our hope is for lousy, then we’re in a lot of trouble. We need policies which will put America back to work – all we’re getting is bail outs for the banks which caused the problem, cover ups for the politicians who allowed it to happen, and hand-outs for politically favored corporations. Its like being slowly dragged in to a nightmare – we can see the horror, we don’t want to go there, but those driving the train refuse to stop, and are telling us to ignore Frankenstein, we’re sure that bright days are right behind himi.
Blogs For Victory 