Go negative – very, very negative:
With 34 days to go in New Jersey, Christie’s lead over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine has been cut from 10 points to four, according to a new survey from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Christie now leads Corzine by just 43-39 percent, with 12 percent of the vote going to Independent candidate Chris Daggett.
On September 1, Christie led Corzine and Daggett by 47-37-7 percent.
What accounts for the halving of Christie’s lead?
Simply put, the pounding he’s taken at the hands of Corzine’s unmatched millions of dollars in negative advertising.
Corzine’s numbers have barely moved — from a favorable/unfavorable rating of 35 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable on June 10, he’s moved to 34 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable.
But Christie’s favorable/unfavorable rating has now moved to 38 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable. That represents a 20-point shift to the negative from June 10, when Christie’s favorable/unfavorable rating was at 36/16 percent.
In other words, since the week he won the primary election, Christie has moved his positives two points, from 36 to 38 percent, while Corzine has moved Christie’s negatives by 22 points, from 16 to 38 percent.
This is an almost exact duplicate of what Democrats did in California back in 2002. Back then, they had a horrendously unpopular governor (Gray Davis) and so what they did was poison the well so much that their man managed to squeek to a win. Helping the Democrats along is a strong, third party candidate who may siphon enough votes away from the GOP to allow Corzine to win with 40% of the vote (he’s a Democrat – that he’s been a miserable failure doesn’t matter, as long as there’s a “D” after his name, he’ll get that many votes in New Jersey). It is also, by the way, what I expect out here in Nevada next year – Reid is building up a $25 million war chest and will use it to smear whomever the GOP nominates.
Now, how does Christie turn this around? As noted later in the linked article – go after New Jersey’s horrific property tax rates. Why? Because it’s popular – the people are overburdened and want relief. But, more important than that, it puts Christie on the outside. In New Jersey, there is always talk of tax relief – but never any action. The people of New Jersey are used to this – they hate it, but its just expected that whomever is elected will break whatever tax promises made (as Corzine has done on the very issue of property taxes). But, still, if its clear and bold and hammered home relentlessly, Christie can put himself outside the New Jersey establishment, and surge to victory in November.
The whole of politics right now is “people vs powerful” – the outside is ticked off at the inside. If you can be outside the establishment, you can win – the establishment has no way to beat you, because you won’t be playing their game on their field. Christie can play it safe, hope his lead holds for the next month…and then get beaten, or he can understand that the old, dead ways of politics must be discarded.
We’ll see how he does. Meanwhile, are you a New Jersey GOPer? Then get out and help.
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