The gubernatorial race in New Jersey has not changed fundamentally recently, no matter what you may read in poorly produced Associated Press stories distributed by the Democratic Governors Association, the Democratic National Committee or Gov. Jon Corzine’s (D) campaign.
I’ve become accustomed to crazy rumors and assertions at the end of campaigns, and most of them are baseless.
A couple of days before Election Day 2006, CBS executives planning the network’s coverage were in a frenzy about a possible Republican surge that challenged all of their assumptions about the election and disrupted their plans for election night. After checking around with reliable pollsters, I told them the sky wasn’t falling on Democrats.
In other years, when Republicans were headed for gains, I’ve heard late rumors about Democratic surges that were equally untrue.
This in response to a recent poll which showed Democrat Governor Corzine only 4 points back against Republican challenger Christie. It was a bit of a shocker, to be sure – here is Corzine, arguably the worst governor in the nation presiding over a collapsing New Jersey economy and a hopelessly corrupt New Jersey political system, and he’s only 4 points back? It was looking like proof that a Democrat in a safely “blue” area just couldn’t be defeated. One was forced to ask: what does it take to convince Democrats that their guy is a loser?
But, then, on thinking about it, there came the realization – people aren’t that stupid. I mean, it’d be different if Corzine had been a good governor mired in problems not of his own making…but its all him, and its all bad. Then when you look in to that recent poll, you’ll see what Rothenberg notes later in his piece – while the GOP support has slipped a little bit, Corzine’s support hasn’t risen at all. Its clear what is happening in NJ – given its a three way race, Corzine and his Democrats are hoping to pump up the Third Party in hopes of getting Corzine a win with 40% or less of the vote. Won’t work – while a lot of people are flirting with the Third Party, when it comes down to it people will want to be sure of getting Corzine out – and that means back to the GOP.
I expect that next month we’ll win NJ with about 45% of the vote – and that, along with what is shaping up as a landslide win in VA, will be the signal we need to really rip things up in 2010.
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