Excellent article in the WSJ about Israel’s increasing acceptance of the need for some sort of decisive action against Iran. Reading it, I got this question in my head: would Israel use nuclear weapons in a first strike?
Keep in mind that in 1967, Israel struck first at those who were gathering to strike Israel. It was a defensive war, but it opened with an Israeli offensive. And it was good that Israel took the step – the enemy wasn’t ready, got severely knocked off balance and the resultant Israeli land captures provided the tactical cushion Israel needed when the enemy tried again in 1973. The trouble is that with Iran, there is not much that conventional Israeli forces can do.
To be sure, the IDF can strike some mighty hard blows at both Iran’s nuclear program and Iran’s ability to hit Israel. But it can’t eliminate the threat, not hit hard enough to convince the Iranian leadership to give up the quest for Israel’s destruction. But the stakes are just as high as they were in 1967 – what is gathering is an existential threat to Israel’s existence. What is gathering is the threat of a second Holocaust.
Two or three nuclear weapons exploded over Israel at the right altitude would pretty much destroy the whole nation (its a very tiny place) and leave the survivors defenseless against Islamist incursions from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. And don’t think that Israel can just settle down to a mini-Cold War of Mutually Assured Destruction…the leaders of Iran are not rational beings as the leaders of the old USSR were. We could rely upon the Soviets to want to survive – Israel can rely on no such thing from the Iranian leadership.
It could be decided that the only way to be sure is by the nuclear destruction of not just the nuke sites, but of Tehran and Qum as well – taking out the civil, religious and military leadership of Iran at a blow, while also destroying the nuclear program which is the ultimate threat.
Impossible? If our nation’s life was faced with utter destruction at the hands of an irrational, hate-filled enemy and our only means were nuclear, what would you do?
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