A stunning reversal:
Cook report: Number of “likely” Democratic House seats down to … 218
A bare majority. Actually, there are only 39 seats listed in the “lean Democratic” and “Democratic toss-up” columns, but as Taegan Goddard points out, if you toss in Bart Gordon’s retirement today in a very winnable GOP district you’re down to the magic number. But never mind that. Follow the first link to Cook and skim the column of “likely Democratic” seats, which are considered safe-ish, to see how many come from districts with a Republican-leaning PVI. If you see multiple retirements in that column — and the NRCC thinks you very well might — then suddenly a bunch of seats are in play on top of the 40 that are already shaky.
My prediction remains – a 25 to 30 seat GOP House gain; a 2 to 3 GOP Senate gain. I fully expect us to be in the minority in the next Congress, though with increased numbers giving us better leverage to block the worst aspects of Obama’s liberalism. On the other hand, things are getting rather dicey for the Democrats.
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