Writing off 2010, but warning us Republicans that we’re going to get clobbered in 2012:
The Republicans who won in ’94 mistakenly believed that Americans had ratified their right-wing philosophy, when voters had simply been using the GOP as a protest vehicle. When 1996 rolled around, the economy was stronger (thank you, 1993 budget), the Republicans’ brand was tarnished (voters came to loathe the Gingrich Congress), and Clinton was again able to charm the country with his sunny demeanor.
The story of Clinton’s first term, in other words, is the story of the difference between midterm and presidential elections.
Except that it wasn’t the 1993 budget but the 1995 budget which really got things rolling – and 2000 showed that even peace and prosperity doesn’t necessarily win continued power for the guys in charge. Gingrich was, indeed, loathed but that was because the New Media simply wasn’t there – we had Rush Limbaugh, a few magazines and that was it. You can’t quite as successfully vilify a Republican in 2010 as you could in 1996 – especially now that MSMers are held in increasing contempt by the electorate. And Clinton was charming – but he also adopted huge swaths of the GOP agenda in order to win re-election in 1996 (welfare reform – opposed tooth and nail by Democrats – was key to Clinton’s victory).
Can Obama be re-elected in 2012? Certainly. Its always very hard to get an incumbent out. In 1980 it was because we had the till-then worst President America ever had in office battling it out with the man who is arguably third after only Washington and Lincoln. In 1992, the ruling party’s vote was split (in 1996, as well – people forget that Clinton never won a popular vote majority; that Obama is the first Democrat to win such a majority since 1976). Prior to Bush I and Carter, you have to go back to 1932 to find a sitting President voted out of office. Its not something which happens on a regular basis. Anyone seriously handicapping 2012 has to put it “leans Obama”.
But, will he? That will depend upon a lot of factors:
1. Is the economy good or bad?
2. Is there a foreign crisis calling in to question the President’s leadership ability?
3. Has there been scandal?
4. Is there a third party to siphon votes away from the President?
In the normal course of events, the economy would be better, foreign affairs would be quiet, there wouldn’t be a major scandal and no third party…but these aren’t very normal times, and we might be wallowing with 10%ish unemployment for years, foreign affairs are getting brutal and not likely to calm down, there already is all sorts of scandal bubbling under the surface and already some leftists are exceptionally angry with Obama.
Lots can happen. Its a long ways away. But to try to extrapolate out from 1994/96 is foolhardy.
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