The two biggest boys on the Asian block rub uncomfortably together:
By sheer demographics, it’s the world’s most important relationship. China and India comprise 40% of humanity and boast economies that are expected to loom large over the 21st century. They also represent two of the world’s fastest-growing militaries, armed with nuclear weapons, and are expanding their spheres of influence across oceans. Jonathan Holslag, a Brussels-based scholar of Chinese foreign policy and author of the recent book China and India: Prospects for Peace, is among a growing number of observers who have dismissed the idea of “Chindia” – a term once often invoked, expressing optimism over the joint geopolitical rise of the two Asian giants. He spoke to TIME about the fault lines between the two neighbors, Washington’s place in the region and how tensions could escalate into war.
Do read the linked interview as it is a good nutshelling of basic issues between China and India.
When World War III comes about, it will involve Chinese aggression. This is not because China is heading towards American-style hyper-power but, actually, because China is a basket case masquerading as a functioning State. A hyperventilating economy with massive over capacity served by a population in desperate demographic straights is not a recipe for good times – and made worse because China is governed by a corrupt oligarchy which does not want to surrender power. When push comes to shove, the Chinese government will choose foreign adventure as an alternative to democratic reform.
This does not mean that China will attack us in a Pearl Harbor manner (though, they might) but that China will fuel the fires by striking at Taiwan, or inducing North Korea to attack Japan, or stirring up trouble in India – or any combination of these or a host of other provocations ready to hand. But once China heads down such a road, war will become inevitable because China’s government won’t be able to stop – once nationalist expansionism is uncorked, the government which tries to re-cork it will be turned out by revolution. And so, off we’ll go.
India already has a substantial military force, but in order to curb Chinese ambitions, it needs an American-quality military. At least three American-quality aircraft carrier battle groups; a strategic bomber force; nuclear submarines (attack and “boomer” – armed with nuclear-tipped missiles); an army trained and equipped up to our standards. That sort of force on China’s southern border just might do the trick to preserve peace – or make the war relatively short, if that fails.
Now, this does mean that we renounce our interests in south Asia – including at least as far west as Iran and the Persian Gulf, as well as east Africa. India takes over the imperial responsibility for that part of the world. But, that is ok – it’ll make it easier for us to deal with China, directly, in east Asia and the Pacific.
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