2010: Anti-Incumbent, or GOP Wave?

Stuart Rothenberg is thinking “wave” – and writes an excellent piece laying out his reasons for rejecting “anti-incumbent”.

I’m not one to argue too much with someone of Rothenberg’s political skill – but I will say that it is neither anti-incumbent nor GOP wave going on out there. It is a strange hybrid of both – with the caveat, in my view, that the GOP still has not closed the deal to turn what will be a good year for Republicans in to a stunner.

There is great anger out there over government in general – how corrupt it is; how out of touch it is; how arrogant some in the political class are. Given that Democrats are in charge, the beneficiaries of this are Republicans – but in the nomination of people like Sharron Angle (and she’s only one of many such) we see that while people are turning to the GOP, they aren’t just turning to any, old GOPer who happens along.

The Republicans who are doing the best – and who could turn this November in to a blow out – are those who are most emphatic in their stated desire to change things in DC. Sue Lowden would have been a fine Republican Senator – but she lacked credibility on the change issue. No one really trusted her to go in to the Senate and shake things up. Angle says she will – and she has the political “street cred” to make her assertions believable.

If the national GOP can craft a solid message of radical change and convince the Republican candidates up and down the ballot to sing from the same hymnal, then a historic victory can be won. We’ll see if we’re up to it.