From Huffington Post:
Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell predicted on Tuesday that if the president escalates America’s military involvement in Afghanistan he could very well face a primary challenger in 2012…
Which is both typical of liberal Democrat politics, and a continuing reminder of just how pathetic liberals are. Boiled down, what Rendell is saying is that if Obama responds to changing circumstances in Afghanistan and sends more troops (or, presumptively, if he just refuses to draw down after July of 2011), then there could be a primary challenger to him. Shades of Bobby Kennedy against LBJ in 1968!
While it should be kept in mind that Rendell was a Hillary backer in 2008, it cannot be ignored that he represents a significant portion of the Democrat coalition on this. And the fact that he’s airing this in public shows the level of dismay Obama is generating on the left. There is clearly a growing level of anger out there over the fact that the new, liberal dawn hasn’t come about as expected on election night, 2008.
I will have to rate the emergence of a serious primary challenger to Obama as a 1-100 shot. But this is still vastly different from “absolutely impossible”, which would have been my judgment even a couple weeks ago. Its still not at all likely because, quite simply, any Democrat who did challenge Obama would be doomed politically, even if they snatched the nomination away from him – there is no way that the broad mass of African-Americans would forgive the Democrat who ousted Obama;come November after that, black voters would stay home in droves, thus assuring not just a GOP Presidential win, but also a massive win in House, Senate and other down-ballot contests (Democrats are extraordinarily dependent upon high black turnout voting 90% Democrat). The Democrat who brought this about would be utterly finished in politics.
And so, I don’t think any of the potential serious challengers would do it. For instance, Hillary ages, but she is also in good health and 2016 is not too long from now. Why end all chances of it in 2012 when a mere four years later she’d have a chance of grabbing the brass ring?
On the other hand, if 2010 turns out badly for the Democrats and the economy slips deep in to recession/depression in 2011, then the choice for the Democrats may come down to figuring out how to save the party. Staying loyal to Obama won’t be much worth if by January 2013 they’re facing a GOP President backed by 300 House and 60 Senate Republicans. With that, in just two years all of Obamunism can be undone and great strides made in dismantling the entire Democrat power structure.
We’ll have to see how it comes out – but clearly things are not rosy in Democrat-land at the moment.
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