Mish points out just how out of whack the experts are getting – a whole pack of them predicted durable goods orders to rise:
Individual Forecasts 1.5 Percent or Greater
* Barclays Capital +1.5%
* BNP Paribas +4.0%
* Citi +1.6%
* Desjardins Group +2.0%
* High Frequency Economics +2.0%
* J.P. Morgan Chase +1.7%
* Janney Montgomery Scott +3.2%
* Landesbank Berlin +2.8%
* Nomura Securities Intl. +3.0%
* PineBridge Investments +2.5%
* Raymond James +2.0%
* RBC Capital Markets +2.3%
* Ried, Thunberg & Co. +1.5%
* Thomson Reuters/IFR +2.9%
* Wrightson Associates +1.5%
I’m sure that even the most financially uninstructed recognize a lot of those names – JP Morgan, Barclays, Citi. These aren’t just odd analysts out there no one listens to. This is the cream of the crop – the people who are supposedly really tuned in to what is going on. On the advice of such people, literally hundreds of billions of dollars will move this way or that.
And, so, what actually happened?
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $190.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly decrease and followed a 0.8 percent May decrease…
This is not just being a bit off. This isn’t predicting a 1.5% increase and having it come in at 1.3%. This is black and white – this is people who, for whatever reason, haven’t the foggiest notion of what is going on out there. Anyone who listened to the experts and acted accordingly got burned. You literally would have been better off just automatically doing the opposite of whatever they said.
It is my opinion that the elite of our economy are entirely out to sea – they were raised on fake money, usurious interest rates and Keynesian economic theory. Now that its all come a cropper, they simply don’t know what to do. They plug their data in to their Keynesian models and its supposed to come out This Way, but then it comes out That Way, instead. They are flabbergasted – FDR cured the Great Depression using the same policies as Obama and the Fed. Why isn’t it working?
I don’t think any of them will ever figure it out – that a line of economic nonsense was propagated for decades and no one really checked in to it (except a few stalwart followers of Hayek, who are now being vindicated all to heck and gone). What they’ll keep doing is just more of the same – there are rumors of another large “quantative easing” in the works. That is elite-speak for “fire up the printing presses, Benny, we need to have government take more lousy assets off our hands!”. If Democrats thought they could get away with it, they’d pass another trillion dollar stimulus bill. They aren’t stuck in a rut – they are shacked to an economic corpse.
Only a complete overturn of the Powers That Be offers a chance to change course and get us on track to real economic revival. Keep these clowns in power, and they’ll bankrupt us completely and still never figure out what went wrong.
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