From NRO’s Campaign Spot:
In the most recent Gallup poll, the generic ballot shows Republicans ahead of Democrats, 50 percent to 43 percent.
The GOP’s seven-point margin is the largest they have enjoyed since . . . the dawn of creation, according to Gallup’s chart.
Strangely, the GOP had a five-point margin in July 1994, but the generic ballot remained tied in August and November.
That last bit is very important – in 1994 with the generic ballot tied up, the GOP still scored historic gains. This is because of the oddity of polling – it always understates GOP strength. There are a lot of theories for this, none of them completely convincing – I don’t bother with them any longer: I just always mentally add 2-3 points to the GOP for polls of likely voters, 3-5 points for polls of registered voters and 5-7 points for polls of adults – it works very well.
Right now, with a 7 point lead, if the election were held today, the Democrats would be utterly crushed. Will this polling sustain itself in to November? No way to tell – but unless things turn around very fast for the Democrats, they are looking at some pretty serious losses on November 2nd.
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