Today we’ll find out if O’Donnell or Castle wins the Delaware GOP Senate primary. As it stands, it is all over but the shouting as far as the primary election goes. The votes will soon be cast, it is unlikely that a number significant to change the result will switch from one side to the other right here on election day. What will happen tonight is as written in stone as anything can be in politics. Personally, I think that O’Donnell will win – and I think in a year like 2010, someone like O’Donnell can win, even in Delaware.
Of course, I could be wrong – all of the O’Donnell supporters could be wrong, at least in that sense: we might be backing a loser in the general election where, if we had backed Castle, we would have been backing as sure a winner as you can get. Furthermore, Mike Castle, victorious, just might be the 51st GOP Senator – while a GOP Senate majority is still highly doubtful (no more than a 50/50 shot and maybe less, from what I can see), taking away Delaware from the Democrats just might be the final win we needed to do it.
Because of all this, many conservatives are backing Castle, even though he’s so liberal that if he were running even in a moderately red State like Virginia, he’d be a Democrat because he’d have zero chance as a Republican. Allahpundit over at Hot Air links to a video clip of Charles Krauthammer being rather upset with Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint for backing O’Donnell over Castle. The point being made is that we must stop and roll back Obama policy, and this will require a GOP Senate majority.
I have the greatest respect for Krauthammer, but I think in this he is dead wrong. So are all the conservatives who are arguing that we must back Castle. In fact, I hold that for a conservative to back Castle is a tremendous mistake – a political mistake, not just an ideological mistake.
It is, first off, not a 100% thing that Castle would win. True, his lead in the polls is strong – but once the Democrats get after him and he proves himself just a squishy, me-too version of the Democrat with a couple of alleged small government caveats, no one can really say how it will come out. Other than to point out that when faced with a choice between the real thing and a weak copy, people tend to choose the real thing. If Castle won’t fight on principle, then it merely becomes “please like me” campaign…and a good campaign by the Democrats can derail that.
Secondly, it is not a certainty that O’Donnell will lose. Certainly, polls show her behind, but being behind after a bruising primary fight is not unusual. If she wins, that mere fact will prove her a formidable candidate – taking on the establishment and winning always has a great appeal. Doubly so in 2010 when the establishment (left and right) is in such disrepute. It is, additionally, a bit of political cowardice to say that the political message must be strictly tailored to what “experts” say the people of a district or State are like. The job of being a politician is to be a leader – to challenge the people and move them along a desired path. If all we GOPers are doing is playing along with a lazy, big government propagandized electorate then we’re failing in our task. One thing certain in 2010, if O’Donnell wins, the people of Delaware will have a real choice to make…and even if they end up choosing the other side, at least the seeds of conservatism will be planted in the heart of blue America.
Third, and most importantly, to win a GOP Senate majority with Mike Castle as the 51st GOP Senator may prove fatal to the GOP. If he’s the only person keeping a majority of the Senate from voting with Obama policy, then we’re doomed…because he will be swayed to cross the aisle and extend the hand and work together in a bi-partisan manner…all of which are just code words for “do what Democrats want”. The electorate appear set to award power to the GOP in November – but they are doing so not out of love for the GOP, but provisionally, and only if the GOP does the right thing.
If starting in January we are boldly challenging the President and liberalism in general and demanding strict, constitutional government, big spending cuts and meaningful reform, then we Republicans will be earning the trust of the people, and the will give us even more power in 2012. If, on the other hand, are are scuttling our side and making deals with Obama and his Democrats, then the people will be convinced – and forever – that the GOP isn’t worthy of support.
The TEA Party is just two steps away, at any moment, from founding a new political party…and it would immediately rip away at least 100 GOP House member and 20 Senators, thus giving it a national base from which to expand, first at the expense of the GOP, secondly at the expense of allegedly “moderate” Democrats. The Republican party has a chance, once again, to become the repository of the trust of the people – the party of the middle class and working poor. The party of the republic; the party of the Declaration of Independence. We can do this – but we can’t do it by giving ourselves a RINO majority which will then cut us off at the knees.
In this year of 2010 when all things are going our way, it is the time for us to be firm – not to try and run up the score. Better 49 Senators we can rely on than 51 who will break our hearts. 2012 and 2014, those are our years not just for a GOP Senate majority, but for a massive, constitution-amending, conservative GOP Senate majority. We should be happy with 48 or 49 Senators after November…between now and 2014, if we do right by the people, we can add 20 more to that number…along with a huge House majority, and a Republican President, and a solid majority of the States governed by Republicans. Then we’ll have to power to undo liberalism…
Or, we can fret that we might not get to 51 in 2010, and thus go chasing after yet another Arlen Specter who will take our money, take our work and take our votes…and hand them over lock, stock and barrel to Obama and his Democrats when it matters the most.
I prefer the hope for the future as opposed to the fears of the present – I vote for a reformed America, and I work for the conservative majority which will bring it about.
UPDATE: From Ed Morrisey – “Castle is almost the reductio ad absurdum of RINOism.”
UPDATE II: On the other hand, Doc Zero endorses Castle.
Main thing to take away from this – there has been a lot of bitter name-calling over this and that is just stupid. If anyone wants to launch a bitter, political attack on some one, then do so against the nearest Democrat.
Precisely – and why we daren’t go with Castle at this juncture.
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