Talk about setting the bar impossibly high:
Trying to reshape expectations for the midterm elections, David Plouffe said Thursday that the Republicans should be expected to make a full sweep of Congress – and key gubernatorial races – given the environmental advantages they have. Anything less, he said, should be seen as a disgrace…
So, if the GOP wins the House, wins 7 or 8 Senate seats and, say, 2/3 of the governorships up for election, then we will have failed by Plouffe’s definition. This is a laughable attempt to pre-spin a loss – but also a strong indicator that in Democrat-land, they know they’re in deep trouble.
To me, for the GOP to “win” in 2010 we will have to secure the House – anything less than that would clearly be a rebuke, as well as greatly demoralizing to the GOP base, which scents victory. Indications are pretty solid that we will do so – and we’ll also do quite well in the governorships, with only Colorado looking like a sure-loss for the GOP. In the Senate, even a two or three seat net gain will be quite a stunning victory – and would be preferable for the GOP rather than winning a Senate majority. This would leave us strong enough to block the worst of liberalism, but still in a position to lay full blame on the Democrats for all that will go wrong in 2011.
Things tend to get cast in stone in politics about 30 days out from the vote – only something really out of the ordinary can shake up the race. Democrats – like Plouffe – are going on the theory that they are just now getting busy and thus closing the gap. I doubt it – you don’t close a gap like this, you just try to limit losses (and Democrat actions speak louder – they are pouring money in to what should have been safe seats…trying to build a fire wall around their core base of power). Actions like the maid smear against Whitman in California indicate a growing level of desperation on the part of Democrats. Meanwhile, poll after poll is coming out now on House races showing un-funded, unknown GOP challengers closing in on long term, supposedly safe Democrats.
It could be a blow out on November 2nd, boys and girls – we might even get a victory by Plouffe’s definition. Am I predicting this? No – it can’t be predicted. It all depends on who shows up – I think that the GOP and GOP-leaning Independent turnout will be stupendous while Democrat turnout will be low. But just because I think that may happen doesn’t mean that it will. If it does come out like that, then just watch history being made…if, on the other hand, Democrats can motivate their base, they’ll probably shave some points off the GOP score.
Time will tell – but I look forward to seeing Plouffe on television on November 2nd.
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