Blogs For Victory

Interesting story over at NRO’s The Corner:

Rep. Bill Owens, a Democrat from upstate New York, may back House Republican leader John Boehner for speaker. New York–based GOP pollster John McLaughlin tells National Review Online that Owens is reading the tea (party) leaves.

“He might as well start talking to Speaker Boehner about switching parties,” McLaughlin says. “Either way, he’s got to be worried about reapportionment in New York State; we’re scheduled to lose two House seats and the Democrats may be ready to give him up. It’s a courageous move; it’s also a smart move.”…

…After Rep. Heath Shuler, a Blue Dog Democrat, lost his bid for minority leader to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the outgoing speaker, swing-district Democrats are squirming. “Owens may be sending a signal to moderate Democrats,” McLaughlin says. “At this point, they may have to do something drastic in order for President Obama and Pelosi to get the message. Owens, more than any outsider, knows what’s really going on inside of that caucus. With this kind of statement, he’s likely showing that he’s willing to vote with Republicans on upcoming bills, be it on tax cuts or other big-ticket items.”…

The very best move the Blue Dogs could do would be to split off from the Democrats and offer a moderate alternative to the nearly-socialist Democrat Party. By taking 30 House members and a few Senators with them (perhaps Lieberman, Tester from Montana, Nelson of Nebraska and just maybe Manchin of West Virginia), such a new party would demonstrate that the Democrat party, as it stands, will never recapture a majority. This would allow the new party to recruit at the State level with a mind towards eventually replacing today’s Democrats with a new major party which would be liberal on social spending, but far more conservative on social issues and personal liberty. In other words, a revival of my father’s Democrat party.

What is happening here, however, could be the start of some switching to the GOP – its already started at the State level (for instance, the party switch of a Louisiana State legislator has given the GOP control of that house for the first time since Reconstruction), and the trend may continue as “2012 Democrats” see both the mood of the nation as well as the liberal pig-headedness of the Democrat leadership. Of course, if they don’t move in the next couple of months, it will be too late – in order to switch and have a shot at not drawing a primary challenger, they’d have to come on board fast and quickly demonstrate their new convictions.

The grim reality for the Democrats is that in 2012 the only person who has a serious chance of winning is President Obama. I know we GOPers are very hopeful that we’ll beat the President, but we have to be realistic – it is very hard to beat an incumbent President and while we’ll work hard and furiously to do it, it won’t be easy. But Obama getting re-elected won’t make Democrats defeated at the legislative and State level in 2012 feel much better. The House is already gone and, given redistricting, might not come back for a decade or more – and given the number of Democrat Senators up for re-election, it would take some really stupid moves by the GOP for Reid to remain Majority Leader come January of 2013.

Boiled down, if there are Democrats who both want to continue in office and have a chance of advancing anything they care about, their only option is to find a way to work with the GOP. While Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are running the Democrat show, there isn’t much chance of working with the GOP. And so, the choices are: form a new party which can, at times, worth in a bi-partisan manner with the GOP, or just join the GOP.

We’ll see how it all plays out.