Seems like a no-brainer, right? These Democrats – a total of 21 up, 10 of them almost certain to face a tough, tough battle to be re-elected – would naturally back the President an agree to extend the tax cuts. But, will they? Rich Baehr over at Pajamas Media points out their quandary:
…If the Democratic incumbents were assured they would be re-nominated, they could begin to position themselves early on for their re-election fight and move a bit towards the center to improve their chances with independents. Independent voters broke sharply for the Republicans in the 2010 midterms, with one of every three independents who voted with the Democrats in 2008 moving to the GOP in 2010. But there are now looming threats from the progressive wing of the party if some of these incumbents are seen as straying from the ideological path favored by the left on the tax bill…
My thinking has been that the 2012ers, especially the most vulnerable, would see this thing trough – and I’m still holding to that. Talk of primary challengers from the left is, for me, just so much talk – most of the time we can count on left wing servility to ensure against such a thing. I realize that they did go after Lieberman in 2006 and thus such things are possible, but the fact that such corrupt Democrats as Barney Frank and Harry Reid were unchallenged in the 2010 primaries indicates to me a continuing, slavish devotion to the leadership on the part of the left wing base.
But…
It could happen – and that means that these 2012ers do need to look over their shoulder to the left as well as to the right. At least until such time as it becomes harder and harder for a credible primary challenger to arise (anyone seriously considering it would have to start getting busy by, say, August of this year; earlier in the early primary States). Not a comfortable position to be in – and, actually, going against this tax deal might be a cheap way for them to lock down some support (or, at least, ensure neutrality) on the part of the left.
This next week could be mighty interesting…
Blogs For Victory 