From Yonhap:
South Korea readied naval destroyers and fighter jets Monday as it prepared to conduct a live-fire artillery exercise from a border island shelled by North Korea last month amid Pyongyang’s threats to strike back if the drill goes ahead.
The communist nation has warned that it would respond to the South’s artillery drill on Yeonpyeong Island with “unpredictable self-defensive blows,” sparking fears of a recurrence of last month’s deadly clash in which the North bombarded the Yellow Sea island…
I have to say that I disagree with South Korea’s policy here – it appears they just want to appear tough. My view – either be tough, or withdraw; don’t put on an act. If South Korea wants to demonstrate to North Korea that violations of the cease fire are no longer allowed, then the best way to do it is to massively attack some North Korean military installation – from sea, land and air, just pick a North Korean base and let them have it.
That does, of course, require some courage – after all, the nuts in North Korea might decide to go to war over it. Personally, I think that is only a 1 in 100 chance – the North Korean regime (really no more than a criminal conspiracy against the people of North Korea) is trying to bluster its way in to more foreign aid in order to keep the North Korean elite in power a bit longer. They almost certainly will not go to war – they will, on the other hand, keep up such things as that artillery attack just as long as they figure they can blackmail the South and the world. As soon as they know its unprofitable, they’ll stop (at least, they’ll stop that – they’ll keep trying other expedients to garner attention and bribes).
But to carry out an exercise is just to play the North Korean’s game – they’ll bluster a bit, South Korea will bluster a bit and then there will be the sit-down…at which North Korea will name the price for keeping the peace for another six months or a year. This is not worth it, as far as I can see, for the South or the world. It is time to stand firm, or stand back – attack or retreat, don’t just stand there…because the longer you keep things like this going on, the worse it will be when it does finally come flying apart (which will probably be just when China decides to get aggressive with Taiwan).
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