Allahpundit over at Hot Air has an excellent run down on the rumor mill over this.
My take: If Hillary leaves the Administration prior to February, then its because she’s looking to a possible primary challenge to Obama in 2012.
Its not that she’d announce it as she left. She’ll leave, if she does, in fog of love-fest between herself and Obama with congratulatory speeches and everything being done to assure everyone that all is well and Hillary just feels its time for someone else to take the helm now that she’s got everything reset in American foreign policy. After she leaves, though, she waits, watches and carefully cultivates political allies as she sees how things go for Obama in 2011.
More than likely, there will be no primary challenger to Obama in 2012. Obama is a prohibitive favorite for re-nomination and, actually, must be favored to be re-elected in 2012, as well (as Barone points out). But Obama is balanced on a knife edge here – just a little more loss of support, and the wolves will start to howl.
And that is what Hillary will be looking for – polling data, economic data and just a general sense of frustration which indicates that Obama is a sure-loser in 2012. If the economy slips back in to full blown recession, then Obama is likely toast…but he could also be toasted just fine by unemployment remaining stubbornly high through 2011. Obama might score some points by playing rope-a-dope with the House GOP…but the House GOP might rope-a-dope Obama, as well (Obama is only considered smart by people who adore him…everyone not blinded by the Obama glow is starting to figure out that there’s just not much behind the teleprompter). If it is late summer of 2011 and Obama is on the rocks, that is when one must start to sniff around to see if anyone is crawling out of the wood work to challenge Obama. Hillary showing up in Iowa would be a confirmation of any challenge rumors…no matter what reason she ostensibly goes there for.
We’ll have to wait and see how this all comes out – but it could be a very fun election year in 2012.
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