Popular Mechanics has an excellent scenario of what might happen if China were to decide to make a military play for Taiwan – with both a good ending and bad ending (as far as America is concerned) scenario. It is a great look at the technological aspects of both the Chinese and American military and how they match up against each other. But I do think it misses a larger point.
In the scenario, China is just trying to grab Taiwan and figures that a swift, hard blow at American power in the western Pacific would deter us from further action while also convincing Taiwan to surrender without a fight. The only time I’m aware of in history where an intact national military force gave up without a fight was in the matter of Czechoslovakia in 1938 – abandoned by their western allies, the Czechs threw up the sponge, an event which still astounds even after the passage of 7 decades. Such acts of national cowardice cannot be expected to repeat. China would have to reckon on Taiwan fighting – doubly so if we showed in any way, shape or form that we would fight along side them.
Also, even the most severe blow to American power – some thing like, say, the sinking of two aircraft carriers – would not convince us to quit but, instead, convince us to fight until the American flag flies over Beijing. A surprise attack on America is the one, sure thing to get all of America in to the war in short order, with dissent stifled and resolution the name of the game. And the thing is, I believe the Chinese understand this – to a certain extent.
They understand it enough to know that an attack on Taiwan means war with the United States – and war to the finish. But they still think they can win such a war. Like Germany and Japan in the past, China is convinced that America’s day has passed – that we are weak, divided, addicted to ease and luxury and simply lack the spirit to go toe to toe in a long, slogging war with high casualty lists. What the Chinese fail to realize (and this failure is shared with some of our own American Ruling Class) is that the weak part of America makes the headlines, but the strong part just goes on getting things done.
People don’t seem to realize that when we went in to WWII we really didn’t all kick up our heels and joyfully go to war. Sure, the propaganda put it out like that and the historians have recorded it as such, but the reality is that there were still plenty in America who shirked the war…but that weakling part of America didn’t matter as the strong part of America took the field and crushed America’s enemies. So it will be, again, if China attacks.
Because China miscalculates both its strength relative to the United States as well as our national spirit, there is a strong chance of war with China. They burn to regain Taiwan and become at least the regional super power of east Asia – with some of the more arrogant Chinese dreaming of replacing America at the head of world affairs. Therein lies our problem – not fully understanding what war with the American republic means, China may let lose war. Our task is to strangle this war before it can get started – but that can only be done by clearly letting China know that war with America means the destruction of China.
To this end, we should be building and strengthening alliances with nations all around the Chinese periphery. India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand should be bound to America with hoops of steel…and we should make whatever contingent agreements we can with Russia, Vietnam and Burma (these jackals will join in attacking China if they think that America has got the upper hand). And we should be greatly strengthening our military forces in the western Pacific – to firm up our diplomacy (nothing so convinces someone to ally with you than a strong military force ready to hand) as well as to give pause to Chinese militarists who think that China – a decidedly second-rate power – can challenge the United States.
The worst thing we can do is allow things to drift – to not build alliances, not build up our military forces and just go on as if nothing is happening. The longer we do that, the stronger China will become and the more convinced they will be that they can try military conclusions with us…and that is just setting the stage for a disastrous World War Three. Acting now with prudence and force we can nip this in the bud – failing to act now means we are digging the graves of millions of people.
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