The New York Times has an interesting analysis of all the rapid changes occurring in the Arab world – from Hezbollah making a play for full power in Lebanon to the revolutionary ferment in Tunisia to pending partition of Sudan as non-Moslems break away from their Moslem oppressors, things seem to be pretty rocky for the establishment. But does this really signal a fundamental shift?
It could – but it could also wind up being a shift for the worse. There are threats in Sudan and if the south breaks away, the Sudanese government will go full on in to Sharia law, which will make life next to impossible for the remaining non-Moslem minority in the northern part of the country. Tunisia is considered the most westernized nation in the Arab world, but will the mass of Tunisians – now that their dictator has fled – really want to keep open the resorts for European tourists, or will they opt for a more hard-line Islamism? If Hezbollah gains full mastery of Lebanon – thus, de-facto, making it a colony of Iran – will this mean renewed war with Israel?
In all these things, American policy will be hobbled by the that our President and Administration understand nothing of Islamism and are all to apt to fall for the asinine view that our support for Israel causes Arabs to hate us (no one really knows how the Arabs feel about us – not being able to vote in real elections, there is no way to tell if manifestations of anti-American sentiment reflect popular views, or are manufactured by tyrannical regimes trying to deflect anger).
In the main, my view is that the more real voting there is in the Arab world, the better for us – while we can see duplications of Gaza in this (ie, Islamist fanatics winning a fair vote and then going on to mess everything up), my bet is that we’ll more often see duplications of Iraq…sure, a bit of anti-American polemics; sure, a bit of anti-Israeli bluster from politicians on the make; but, mostly, as freely elected politicians need to get re-elected, they concentrate on domestic reforms. But I am also deeply concerned for non-Moslem minorities – especially my Christian brothers and sisters. I don’t trust my fellow Christians to Moslem rule – even democratic Moslem rule. There is just too long a history of Moslems being cruel and spiteful towards Christians they rule over; I want, at the least, autonomy for all Christian communities in the Arab world – with a preference for outright independence, when that can be managed.
When walls come tumbling down a lot of things can be let in – light, reason and peace; but it can also let in war, oppression and fanaticism. We do need to craft a very careful policy where we can guide the new forces in channels conducive to liberty and peace…but since we have an Administration which doesn’t understand liberty while also not understanding Islam, I doubt we’ll get such a policy. We may, after all is said and done, do no more than go along for the ride…and hope that the Arab world is not riding towards disaster.
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