Interesting poll from Rasmussen:
Nearly half of the Republican Primary voters who support Sarah Palin say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for a third-party candidate if she does not win the GOP presidential nomination.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely Republican Primary Voters who favor Palin say they are at least somewhat likely to vote third-party if she isn’t nominated. That includes 22% who say it is Very Likely…
The survey goes on to note that about 1/3 of GOP likely primary voters are backing Palin right now – so, about 15% of GOP primary voters will consider a third party candidate if Palin isn’t the nominee. This is just about enough to sink a GOP Presidential candidate in 2012 if the Democrats are fully united behind Obama (not a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination; if both parties base is split, then no one knows what in heck might happen). To me, this doesn’t mean “nominate Palin or lose part of the base”; its a bit more sophisticated than that. What it means is “nominate a RINO, and the GOP is doomed”.
Whomever the GOP nominee in 2012 is, that person had better be in good with the TEA Party activists – because those are the people who will provide – or deny – the donations and foot soldiers for the campaign. Obama will raise $1 billion (or more) for his re-election effort and his organization, in tight alliance with most of the MSM, will go for the most relentlessly negative and hate-filled campaign since 1948 (when Truman won by going double extra nasty against the GOP nominee). The only thing which can derail this Obama express is people power – and if the GOP nominee doesn’t enthuse the people, that person simply won’t be able to win.
And this is why, of course, Obama and his allies (especially in the MSM) are trying to scare the GOP away from the TEA Party – endlessly we are told that the TEA Party is toxic and any candidate in good with that organization will be defeated in November of 2012. This “helpful” advice is coming from those who have most to lose if a TEA Party-backed candidate wins, and that should tell everyone all they need to know of the worthiness of the advice. Don’t fall for it – don’t let yourself be convinced to back a Bod Dole-redux in 2012…we don’t need a nice, respected, establishment GOPer who will know how to lose gracefully, we need a fighter who will kick the Democrats right back in the groin when they do it to us.
It doesn’t have to be Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann or, indeed, anyone currently high on the political radar. It does have to be someone who can convince the TEA Party activists that genuine, constitutional reform is coming to DC. We’re in for the fight of our political lives in 2012 – let’s not blow it in the first round by taking liberal/RINO advice on what to do.
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