Because that is what really happened – the people in the square were there yesterday, as well, when Mubarak said he’d hang tough. More than likely, the regime gave Mubarak one, last chance to try and hang in there – and when it failed, the regime said it was time to go. Now, Mubarak’s hand-picked VP and the army are in charge…hardly a regime-change as it was Mubarak and the army in charge, and Mubarak was Anwar Sadat’s hand-picked successor way back when.
This does not mean that there won’t be some major changes coming up – clearly, the Nasser/Sadat/Mubarak model no longer works. New forces are lose and bottling them up would take more oppression than anyone over there is likely willing to apply. And, so, new men will rise…but, which new men? That is the worry – and why we should still go with “no trade, no aid”. Back off from the whole mess, no more support for Egypt’s army…see how things shake out. If the regime resolves itself in to a quasi-Mubarak type regime, we want no part of it. If the regime resolves itself in to a forcing-ground for Moslem Brotherhood rule, we want no part of it. If, though, a genuine democracy is created, then we step back in with all sorts of aid.
Unfortunately, we have a government with neither the will to intervene nor the will to stay out – we’re dipping our toes in to revolution and angering both the establishment and the rebels. Could be a very long couple of years…
Blogs For Victory 