Blogs For Victory

Just a general thread where Libya and all other war issues, and issues related to the war (oil prices, global revolution, etc) can be discussed.

My view at this point is that we likely intervened about 10 days too late – too late, that is, for air power, alone, to have done the trick. Richard Fernandez over at Pajamas Media has put together an exceptionally useful map of Libya which spells it out in stark terms – for the most part, Gaddafi’s forces control the oil and water of Libya. That is, Gaddafi controls the means for Libya to make money (and thus buy supplies, civil and military) as well as the means by which Libyans can live on their own (the water supply in their desert nation). Had we moved ten days ago, then we would have gone in when the Libyan rebels controlled about half of these assets. All we’ve done at this point is rush to the aid of a liability – we could have a massive humanitarian crisis swiftly on our hands where we are responsible for feeding a couple million people while at the same time trying to use aerial bombardment to keep a rebel army in the field.

To achieve a victory in Libya – which must mean, regardless of what else transpires, the end of the Gaddafi regime – will require more force than we have apparently earmarked for Libya. It will probably require at least some ground forces…at least enough to protect Benghazi and ensure that Gaddafi’s mobile forces are not able to outflank the rebels. So far, President Obama has entirely ruled out such forces, and none of other members of the coalition seem inclined to go that far in. Perhaps France will, but we shall have to see. Meanwhile, Russia is cooking up stories that Gaddafi’s planes never left the ground and the Arab League is going wobbly on us…this is just prep work for a sell out of the Libyan people and more deals with Gaddafi if he hangs on, but it shows that support for this action will vanish rather swiftly.

Here at home, quite a lot of the far left is very upset with Obama over this – and, in truth, I don’t like the fact that he committed us to a war just on the say-so of the hopelessly corrupt United Nations. The US Congress should have been asked to authorize military force and appropriate money for the effort. If this now blows up in our faces, it will cause an acute political crisis in the United States – our executive leadership will be greatly weakened as both left and right pile on. No one in America is committed to this except President Obama and Hillary Clinton…and if its not a swift and easy victory, then those two will bear all the blame (though, naturally, Obama will seek to cast all of it on Hillary).

This was a good idea done at the wrong time and in the wrong way – but it is not irretrievable. First off, we might get lucky – we might be able to convince Gaddafi’s loyalists that it is better to turn on him and thus solve our problem. This is about a 50/50 shot…but bribes and offers of post-war power and position will have to be offered, otherwise there is no upside for anyone to turn on Gaddafi…the people backing him are those who have profited most from his regime; right now, their position is entirely tied up in keeping Gaddafi and his family in power. To turn them, we’ll need to show them that they’ll come out of it ahead of the game. Secondly, the bombing might prove so effective against Gaddafi’s forces that even the weak rebels will be able to prevail on the ground…but this might take a sustained aerial offensive including at least some close air support as the rebels advance. This puts allied forces at high risk of being hit, and dead allied soldiers and airmen will swiftly evaporate whatever support there is for the effort.

In the end, victory must be achieved. Once the guns go off – even if they go off half cocked – the requirement is victory. The political results of an American defeat – and make no mistake about it, if Gaddafi survives it is an American defeat – would be so bad that they must not be allowed. Envision a triumphant Gaddafi and an encouraged Iran, Venezuela, Syria, et al all ganging up on us in this, that and the other corner of the world as revolutions are stifled for fear that American will fail, again. We’d have to spend a decade, at least, repairing the damage…and a lot of lives would be lost, starting with a lot of innocent, Libyan lives but eventually the blood would come to our door.

As we must win, the only thing to do now is to figure out the best means of swiftly accomplishing it. I hope that President Obama and his military advisers are thinking carefully over this and will draw up contingency plans to deal with events if the bombing proves ineffective. Much is at stake here, and swift action at an early date will ensure that the problems met are relatively small and fairly easily dealt with. Delay is fatal in war, as is campaigning without a clear goal in mind – it is time for us to dig in and get serious about this business.