From ABC:
Just over ten months before next February’s Iowa caucuses Sarah Palin is returning from a recent trip to Israel. But Tea Party darling Rep. Michele Bachmann is already hitting the Hawkeye state capital.
Unlike Palin, all signs point to Bachmann running for the Republican presidential nomination later this year. In an Iowa version of ABC News’ “Subway Series” shot on the Des Moines city trolley, the Minnesota Republican told ABC’s Jonathan Karl, “I’m in.”
Well, sort of.
“I’m in for 2012 in that I want to be a part of the conversation in making sure that President Obama only serves one term, not two, because I want to make sure that we get someone who’s going to be making the country work again. That’s what I’m in for,” Bachmann said…
To translate from the politician, “I really, really want to run, but before I go putting myself out there as an official candidate, I want to raise some money, raise my national profile and do some polling to see if I’ve got a chance…”. If you want to bet, then bet she throws her hat in to the ring.
Now, does she have a chance? Not much. House members tend to lack the “oomph” necessary to win a major party nomination. They often don’t even have full name recognition their home States, let alone name recognition around the country (I bet that not 4 in 10 Americans could identify who the Speaker of the House is…for a back bencher like Bachmann, though a darling to the right, it would be less than 1 in 10). It is an extraordinary uphill climb for Bachmann to even become competitive in Iowa and New Hampshire, though she is helped in Iowa by her roots in that State, and she does represent neighboring Minnesota. For Bachmann to really have a shot, she’s going to have to do it entirely by retail…she’s going to have to stump from one end of Iowa to the other and then duplicate that in New Hampshire.
That can be done – but it takes enormous dedication and discipline. Essentially, from now until next January, she’ll have to do pretty much nothing but campaign. And that, on the other hand, puts her at risk of becoming stale in both States – allowing someone else to rush in late and scoop up her voters (which does make me think she might be a stalking horse for Sarah Palin). The one thing to keep in mind for 2012, however, is the fact that while someone like Bachmann doesn’t have much of a shot, she does have that shot…literally anyone who can put together any sort of credible campaign can catch fire for 2012 and sweep it all. The GOP base is that restive and the American electorate in that revolutionary a mood. So, don’t count anyone out – but don’t sell yourself on any one candidate any time soon.
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