From Gallup:
Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, was at 19.1% in mid-May — down from 19.3% at the end of April. Underemployment remains as high as it was in mid-May 2010.
While Gallup’s not seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate suggests little improvement (0.2 percentage points) compared with the same time in 2010, the government’s unadjusted results show a year-over-year decline of 0.8 points.
Interestingly, Gallup’s monthly measures tracked closely to those the government reported in early 2010 but the two trends have diverged since January 2011…
Which, to me, is another indicator that someone is putting a rosy glow on the government numbers. Today’s reports that housing starts and capacity utilization “unexpectedly” declined (likely, in my view, due to rising energy costs coupled with supply train problems coming out of Japan) demonstrates that things are not going at all well with the economy. We’re also coming to the end of “QE2” – the Fed’s money-printing program which has allowed stocks and commodities to rise so high. Supposedly, QE2 ends in June…and, then what?
Some say we’ll slip right back in to recession, others say the Fed will figure out a different way to print money…anything to keep the asset bubble from bursting. That is what I think will happen – no one at the Fed (or in the Obama Administration), wants a resumption of the recession at this point (it’ll be ok if it starts in November, 2012, or even October as long as it isn’t noticeable in the election polling component of Obamunism! GDP estimates). The bad news is that you can only keep an asset bubble pumped up for so long – eventually, things must be priced to their real value (take a look at your home value for evidence of this). We can delay the crash, we can’t stop it.
Get out of debt and save as much money as you can – and hold on to your hat.
HAT TIP: Mish’s
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