According to the Daily Ticker:
The world is headed for an economic slowdown, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Long Leading Index of global industrial growth.
“It is not country specific, but imagine if you could add up all the activity in factories around the world and see if it was accelerating or decelerating, that is what this indicator is focused on,” says Lakshman Achuthan founder and managing director of the research center. “And it has been telling us very clearly, unambiguously, that we have a peak in global industrial growth this summer.”…
The good news is that they don’t predict a full-blown recession – the bad news is that I think that a lot of the data they are using to say it won’t be that bad is not exactly true…such as the alleged job creation numbers we’ve been seeing. But, the bottom line is that the economy is about to slide down – how far remains to be seen.
Fundamentally, a sound economy is based upon low debt, sound money, high productivity and careful savings. We have high debt, a weak currency and little to no savings – our productivity is good, but we’re also not producing nearly as much in the United States as we can or should. Our economy is unbalanced and incapable under current tax and regulatory policy of the sustained wealth creation necessary to re-employ all those who lost their jobs, let alone provide the rise in living standards Americans are accustomed to.
While Obama is President, we will simply not get the policies necessary for a genuine economic recovery. Even if collapse doesn’t happen, the economy will not recover until the brakes to recovery set up by Big Government and Big Corporation are removed. The doldrums is the best we can expect…but I fully expect things to get a lot worse.
HAT TIP: Mish’s
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