The thinking is that her tour means, for sure, she’s getting in…and there is, indeed, a good chance of it. But one must not be too hasty – it is always vital to remember that Sarah Palin is one of the smartest people in politics these days…it remains to be seen if she Reaganesque in her abilities, but she tends to leave all Democrats, most MSMers and quite a lot of GOPers in the dust.
Personally, I think this tour is a bit of a rope-a-dope – the MSM will breathlessly report on her, Democrats will go back in to attack mode, the more dim bulb, RINO part of the GOP will fire up the sneers…and then she’ll end her tour and do nothing…for a while. Back in to her Spring retreat to review the tour and the message and then make the final call about getting in to the race.
The key for Sarah Palin is timing – her name recognition is 100% among GOPers and nearly that among everyone else. She doesn’t need to introduce herself – but she does need to not be the Sarah Palin of 2008, just as Reagan in 1980 couldn’t just be a repeat of Reagan ’76. For a politician it is a matter of finding that element which turns a spark in to a conflagration. It can’t be just manufactured, it has to be coaxed and massaged in to existence. My bet is that Palin is best off announcing as late as possible – late enough, indeed, to make a loss in Iowa unimportant (it takes a lot of retail politics to win Iowa…I don’t think Palin can do it because anywhere she goes she’ll be thronged by the MSM and a host of fans as well as a band of haters…she’d never get the chance to really do Iowa politics; it is lesser known candidates who can use Iowa as a springboard, as Carter did in 1976). If she announces late after being out of the public eye for a couple months, it becomes a dramatic, late-breaking story…the kind of thing which can immediately build up momentum and allow her to do well in New Hampshire and win in South Carolina.
But, what do I know? We’ll see how it comes out…
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