The prediction is being made David Rosenberg over at Bloomberg, quoted by Mish:
Bloomberg: How Certain are you that we may be headed for a recession
Rosenberg: I think that by 2012, I would give it a 99% chance. I say that because as an economist, you have to be part historian. When you have a manufacturing inventory cycle recession, they are usually separated 5 years apart. But when you have a balance sheet recession, credit contraction, asset deflation (for example residential real estate), the downturn tends to be separated every 2 to 2.5 years. … Economists call this a soft patch. It’s not like this is a soft patch. Basically, when all the stimulus is gone, you get to see what the emperor looks like disrobed. It’s not a pretty picture.
The reason why you’ve seen a switch over from “everything’s going swell” to “gee, things are starting to get rocky” in the MSM and Administration statements (I know, same/same) is because they know this is true. They know once stimulus and money printing ends, the alleged recovery ends with it. Not wanting a recession as we head in to 2012, Obama and the Banksters have decided to stampede us all in to agreeing to increased debt (thus the push for a debt ceiling increase) and another round of “quantitative easing” (money printing). They figure if we get frightened enough that things will get worse, we’ll go along with them…alternately, if we hold firm then Obama and his allies will blame us for the renewed recession – “those darn Republicans: we had everything fixed but then they wouldn’t let us go further in to debt!”.
My advice is do get ready for the renewed recession but don’t buy the BS that it was anything other than tax and spend liberalism which caused it. We’re in for a rough time but the good news is that it will happen at just about the perfect moment – it will help us greatly in ejecting liberalism from power. Whether or not this will lead to GOP leaders who have a clue remains to be seen.
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