GOP Holds 9 Point Lead in “Generic” Ballot

From Rasmussen:

…A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would choose the Democrat instead. That gap is up three points from last week, when Republicans led 44% to 38%…

There has been some talk of late that Democrats – especially in the House – may be able to take advantage of a general public disgust with Congress to re-capture the House.  This is within the realm of possibility, but it is not very likely. There are several hurdles Democrats would have to vault:

1.  2012 will be driven by Presidential politics.  While “ticket splitting” is an old and honorable American political tactic, it still works out that the party most on the outs is heavily punished.  For all the problems the House GOP has, they still aren’t “in charge”.  Obama and the Democrats are.  If people are upset with Obama, they will not in very large numbers choose some of his fellow Democrats down ballot.

2.  The stark fact that America is a center-right nation makes it hard for a liberal party, like the Democrats, to gain traction except when they are completely out of power and the other side is loathed.  2006 and 2008 cannot possibly repeat themselves until a period of exclusive GOP power intervenes.

3.  Re-districting will shore up GOPers and weaken Democrats. For the first time since the 1920 census, the GOP holds the majority of re-districting power in the United States.  In 2012, for the first time since 1932 or so, the GOP will not be playing the political game on the field the Democrats made.  Most people don’t fully realize what a change this will make…we’re just used to things as they were, and aren’t any longer.  A lot of results in 2012 will surpise everyone except those with a strong sense of history and/or a good deal of number-crunching skill to see how the newly drawn districts will play.

4.  At the end of the day, electing Democrats to the House means putting Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s chair.  I can’t imagine what set of mental breakdowns were required in Democrat ranks to make Pelosi the Minority Leader, but no greater gift was ever handed to the Congressional GOP.  The woman is intensely disliked in the nation and GOPers will crawl on their knees over broken glass to ensure against a return of Pelosi.  She’s also a failure – her “leadership” in returning the Democrats to Congressional power in 2006 was no more than pure, dumb luck in that the GOP was immensely unpopular and made every possible mistake a party can make – a ham sandwich would have won just as big in 2006.  Pelosi’s skills as a leader were revealed in the way she entirely ruined the Congressional Democrat brand in just three years – she’s not the person to craft a winning message and campaign in a hostile political environment.

And this poll shows that, at bottom, the people are more willing to trust the GOP to manage things going forward than they are the Democrats.  This doesn’t at all translate in to blank-check support for the GOP, but it does indicate that when people go in to the voting booth in 2012, they are far more likely to vote GOP than vote Democrat.  With these sorts of numbers, the GOP would win 30 more House seats in 2012…and it would take a massive turn around in Democrat prospects just to hold on to what they’ve got.  Sure, that can be done.  Certainly, the GOP can massively screw up…but it would take two near-miracles for Democrats to regain the House, and I just don’t see that happening.


28 thoughts on “GOP Holds 9 Point Lead in “Generic” Ballot

  1. neocon1 August 30, 2011 / 5:06 am

    It shows when 46% pay no taxes and 53% pay LESS than 3% of all taxes the drones are firmly on the donk/commie plantation for which they have and will sell their souls and freedom for.

    It should be a 90 point lead, not 9

    we are there NOW….
    A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.

    Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.

    • bardolf August 30, 2011 / 10:00 am

      Everyone pays sales tax. Everyone working pays federal taxes for social security.

      When you war hawks stop spending trillions in hell holes and pull back from being the world’s cop then maybe you can talk about the revenue side. Of course without the unending need for ‘tactical’ support to needy countries around the world, Rick Perry wouldn’t even have his military service to fill out his hollow resume.

      • Luckee August 30, 2011 / 10:26 am

        I have twin 13 year-old daughters and thought being around adolescent girls exposed me to as much cattiness as I was likely to experience but you, Bardolf, outdo them. What is it with you? All you do is whine and complain and be cattier than a room full of teenage girls. Are you really saying that if we did not claim to have to be in needy countries around the world we would not need a military at all? That is just plain stupid. So is your catty comment about Rick Perry. Do you have a better resume? I will bet your is a lot more hollow than his and that you have not even served your country. You military hating liberals dismiss military service but I think it is because deep down you have shame that you were not man enough to do it yourself.

      • Cluster August 30, 2011 / 10:54 am

        I know things like hard work and grades in high school and college aren’t strong suits among the GOP faithful, – barstool

        What an asinine statement. Another hyper sensitive moment courtesy of our resident self righteous metro sexual bardolf.

      • Cluster August 30, 2011 / 10:57 am

        Isn’t it ironic how liberals never questioned the thin resume, or the religious practices of the idiot currently in the white house back when he was campaigning in 2008? Why is that barstool?

      • RetiredSpook August 30, 2011 / 11:02 am

        My brothers and fathers needed the military for those things so they joined the military.

        You had more than one father? Our dog had a litter of puppies that had multiple fathers. That explains a lot.

      • bardolf August 30, 2011 / 11:17 am


        Show me the hard work in college by Perry or Palin or Bachmann or Romney …

        I didn’t vote for Obummer the blank screen for a reason.


        I claim typo. One father.

        There are certain disparaging and ugly words and references that will not be tolerated. Your previous post was removed because of this. // Moderator

      • Cluster August 30, 2011 / 11:36 am


        What does hard work in college have to do with anything? Bill Gates is a college drop out. My grandfather never went to college and ended up running his own business very successfully for over 50 years.

        College doesn’t have anything to do with it.

      • Cluster August 30, 2011 / 11:37 am

        Oh and more importantly, Obama graduated from Harvard, and look how ###### he is.

        Same rules for same words. //Moderator

      • bardolf August 30, 2011 / 11:51 am


        Your Bill Gates III example is par for the course for the GOP prescription for the economy.

        1. Have really rich parents (father is a Harvard lawyer e.g. ) who can send you to an
        2. exclusive preparatory school as a teenager where the mother’s group buys equipment to give you
        3. early access to a technological innovation that occurs once in a generation.

        WORK really hard (*****this is the part of the equation everyone truly has access to in the West*****) and due to the once in a generation event be so far ahead of the curve that even

        4. Going to Harvard won’t further your career so you drop out.

        Gates had SKILLS beyond Harvard. Perry has skills below A&M. There is a big difference. If Perry had started a business from scratch it would be a completely different story.

      • Cluster August 30, 2011 / 11:54 am

        Maybe if Perry were a community organizer he would be better qualified. Seriously barstool, your just flailing about here, lashing out at nothing worth substance. You and GMB should get together and hold out until the perfect, walks-on-water candidate emerges and soothes your worries. The rest of us will deal with the real world.

      • bardolf August 30, 2011 / 12:53 pm


        It seems your only criteria for the GOP candidate is that she is better than Obama. Do you have such low expectations of everything in your life or just politics?

      • Luckee August 31, 2011 / 4:14 pm

        Isn’t this about politics? If we were talking about cars then I suppose we should discuss the standards of automobile design. I went back and checked and sure enough the post is about who might beat Obama so what is your point?

  2. Green Mountain Boy August 30, 2011 / 10:03 am

    I do not see how slowingdown the rate of growth of our welfare state will help us. How any one politician or even a group of like minded politicians will help us. Most everyone is too comfortable with the system as is. We did this to ourselves. It is up to us to fix it. Taking one step back when we have allowed the progressive movement to go miles forward does not seem like a winning proposition to me.

    • Sunnier August 30, 2011 / 10:16 am

      Green Mountain Boy do you mean that you really don’t believe slowing down the rate of growth of our welfare state will help us or that you really don’t believe our politicians are willing to do anything to fix it? You say it is up to us to fix it but if you also do not think slowing down the rate of growth of our welfare state will help us then what kind of fix do you think we can do? I am trying to understand what you think will help. Is it that slowing down the rate of growth is not enough but that we have to stop growth all together? Cut back? I agree the progressive movement has gone way too far already, are you saying we need to move it backward? I would like to do this too but wonder what ideas you have.

      • Green Mountain Boy August 30, 2011 / 10:27 am

        I think we are past the point of no return. The welfare state is too deeply ingrained in our society. Any reduction in it will be resisted strongly. Look at how easy the GOP controlled house rolled over on every major issue that came before it this session.

        Ideas to fix it. I guess I am out of ideas that are acceptable. Wholesale change in congress and the president with people willing to end ss medicare, medicaid, snap, etc. That will never happen though. Everyone wants to be reelected.

      • Leonard L'Farte August 30, 2011 / 11:08 am

        I think we are past the point of no return. The welfare state is too deeply ingrained in our society.

        Green, I’ve always been a roll-with-the-punches type of guy, but I’m beginning to realize that America is headed in a dangerous direction, so when I see this kind of rhetoric, I’m not sure exactly how to take it. Are you ready to just roll over and accept that we are becoming a European-style social democracy by default?

      • Cluster August 30, 2011 / 11:39 am

        Leonard, I think that is about it. Unless the perfect candidate emerges, GMB is prepared to sink the titanic, rather than work with the hand he is dealt. So to GMB, it’s either a royal flush or nothing.

      • bardolf August 30, 2011 / 11:53 am


        The Titanic is going down from GMB’s point of view. He’s looking for a life raft and not counting on the Skipper from Gilligan’s Island to pretend he can keep the boat afloat.

      • tiredoflibbs August 30, 2011 / 11:56 am

        Skipper from Gilligan’s Island would be a better steward for the economy than the obAMATEUR in the White House.

  3. RetiredSpook August 30, 2011 / 12:42 pm

    Interesting Obama interview by Brian Williams on August, 29th……………2010.

  4. Green Mountain Boy August 30, 2011 / 1:40 pm

    I do enjoy the fact that Cluster and Thomas have the same opinion of me. That means something to me.
    All or nothing? I don’t think so. I see it like this. The repubs in thier current state are offering nothing. The donkrats less than nothing. Does that make my thinking clearer?
    Leonard; it depends on what you mean by rolling over. Everybody has thier own definitions whats yours?

    • Leonard L'Farte August 30, 2011 / 6:13 pm


      Well, I’m not quite ready to start shooting liberals, if that’s what you mean. Like I said, I’ve always been someone who doesn’t like to rock the boat. I suspect one of the reasons the country has gotten to the point it has is because lots of ordinary people like me have been busy working, raising a family, and just trying to make ends meet to really see what was happening to the country. Losing my full-time and part-time jobs within a 2-week span recently has profoundly changed my perspective.

      I’ve been doing odd jobs while searching for something more permanent, but, as I said a while back, there aren’t many opportunities out there for a fat, bald 53-year-old. Fortunately, I’ve got some money saved up, don’t have a lot of debt, our kids are grown (and haven’t moved back in — yet), and my wife still has a decent job. I’ve been kicking around some ideas, and I’m seriously thinking about starting my own business.

      As far as “rolling over is concerned, it appears from your comments that you don’t think our situation is solvable through the election/political process. Beyond revolution (a bridge I’m not yet prepared to cross), I’m not sure what other choices we have.

      • Green Mountain Boy August 30, 2011 / 6:43 pm

        It does not matter what we want at all. The lefties will try to get what they want. By force of arms if need be. The voices calling for this get louder every day. The voices of class and race get louder every day.

        What has the republican party done to counteract this besides stick thier head in the sand.

        No Justice!! No Peace!!! It isn’t just a slogan to the people yelling it.

  5. Sunny August 30, 2011 / 2:13 pm

    “The stark fact that America is a center-right nation makes it hard for a liberal party, like the Democrats, to gain traction except when they are completely out of power and the other side is loathed. 2006 and 2008 cannot possibly repeat themselves until a period of exclusive GOP power intervenes.” Mark

    That is a true statement Mark, and that is what is going to hurt the Republicans if they chose a candidate like Michelle Bachmann or Rick Perry. Both are way too far right for most Americans. What are the chances that the GOP will select someone like Huntsman or Romney? I think those chances are slim. Bachmann is already falling sharply among the conservatives. And I don’t think Americans are ready for another swagering Texan like Perry. He has a lot of baggage. If the GOP does not come up with a more central candidate I do not see how Obama will be beat come the next presidential election.

    • Leonard L'Farte August 30, 2011 / 6:16 pm


      Correct me if I’m wrong, but I assume you like President Obama. If so, what are some of the policies he’s pursued that you like?

      • neocon1 August 30, 2011 / 6:30 pm


        black panthers
        nation of islam
        piven cloward

    • Luckee August 31, 2011 / 4:16 pm

      What does “way too far right” mean?

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