Obamacare and 2012

An interesting perspective from the Washington Examiner‘s Stephen Smith about Obamacare’s pending SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare.

It may sound counterintuitive, but here’s betting that President Obama wouldn’t be at all upset if the high court rules that his health plan is unconstitutional.

By urging an expedited review by the U.S. Supreme Court, the president knows that the politics cuts his way. If the court strikes down the plan, then Obama won’t have to defend it in the fall campaign, robbing the Republicans of one of their two lines of attack, the other being the moribund economy. He could rally his base by arguing that he had pushed through a great “progressive” reform only to be foiled by the conservative-leaning Supreme Court. People, like markets, hate uncertainty, and the presumed swing vote by Justice Kennedy could settle the issue.

If Obama wins the judicial appeal, it will still be a win for him along the lines of today’s conventional thinking. He will be able to argue that the Administration always knew Obamacare was constitutional, and the expedited review will muffle the issue in the general-election campaign.

Here’s my thoughts.

First of all, should Obamacare be ruled unconstitutional, as it most likely will be, that’s a pretty big defeat for Obama. When your signature achievement is declared unconstitutional by the highest court in the country, that’s hardly a rallying point for voters to support, especially the coveted moderate vote. It’s hard to find victory out of a defeat like that. And even if a defeat energized his base, it won’t energize moderates.

Second, the biggest issue of the election will be the economy. Obamacare may be an issue in 2012, but regardless of a SCOTUS ruling or lack of one, Obama will be judged primarily on his failure to fix economy… or more accurately his success in making it worse.

Your thoughts?

7 thoughts on “Obamacare and 2012

  1. neocon1 September 29, 2011 / 5:23 pm

    The plan has always been for the barry larry, and Mooch show to be one term.
    The KKKlintoons just went to easy and have never been far away.

  2. tiredoflibbs September 29, 2011 / 5:28 pm

    Unconstitutional?

    obAMATEUR did say that Ethics was his least favorite subject.

    His actions back this ASSertion up 100%.

    • Cluster September 30, 2011 / 8:28 am

      Thomas,

      How are you any different?

    • tiredoflibbs September 30, 2011 / 10:02 am

      Refute the facts tommy-boy, if you dare to research the truth….

      ….obAMATEUR said so.

      Otherwise, go away.

      It is not my fault that the obAMATEUR does not worry about the constitutionality of his actions or ideas turned into legislation. He tries to get away with it until slapped on the wrist by the SC.

      Now refute facts and stop the whining.

    • tiredoflibbs September 30, 2011 / 10:04 am

      “i look forward to your reply about me flailing and missing… ”

      Good. I am glad you can take accurate criticism.

      “…..and how you’re a god.”

      Whoa, it’s worse than I thought.

      Thanks for playing. You lost. Get over it.

    • neocon1 October 1, 2011 / 2:33 pm

      tommyturban

      nice post tardo

  3. Allan_Yackey September 30, 2011 / 3:19 pm

    What I see here is a “Hail Mary”. The Eleventh Circuit ruling is the worst so far for Obamacare. With the make up of the Circuit, a petition for an En Banc rehearing has a high probably of ending up with a worse result for the administration. That would have delayed the Supreme Court from hearing it until after 2012, but at the risk of the worse ruling and a harder campaign.

    Once the time period for a rehearing had passed, the States were in a position to move it quickly to the Supreme Court anyway. But no matter what the outcome in the Supreme Court, the Obama crew will be presenting the case and at least trying to hold on to some part of it. If any part survives it will be difficult to alter it through the legislative process after 2012 once the Supreme Court has ruled.

    If the case is not heard until 2013 however, it seems probable that a different administration will be defending the law. If it is a Republican administration that controls the Justice Department while the case is pending all that they have to do is “confess error”, admit that the purchase mandate or the whole thing is unconstitutional. The result will be a Supreme Court decision that the entire effort is unconstitutional. That eliminates any need to approach Congress to change anything.

    In fact the only way Congress could alter the result would be by a Constitutional Amendment process. Thus, no matter how bad the odds are and despite the fact that this argument will be front and center in the 2012 campaign, it is really the only way supporters have any chance of holding onto any part of the law.

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