Really? Sabato Says Obama Wins Handily

Yup, the same guy who predicted John Kerry would win in 2004, and said that Bush needed a miracle to win reelection, is saying that Obama wins in handily.

His key arguments for the 11th hour shifts in the battleground states are as follows

  • Hurricane Sandy provided him with a boost.
  • The last jobs report, by not being horrible, was good for him.

Let’s consider these arguments.

I can’t buy the argument that the jobs report, which had the unemployment go up, thus pointing it higher today than it was when Obama took office, was a net positive for Obama. A mixed jobs report isn’t likely to change any minds either way, in my opinion, and hardly changes the fundamentals: There are fewer people employed today than when Obama took office, people are making less money, and more people are on food stamps.

Now, the bigger point: Hurricane Sandy. While one could make the case that Romney’s momentum was halted for a few days, I find it harder to suggest a shift in momentum in Obama’s favor. Even after the first days when Obama benefited from positive coverage, the aftermath of Sandy’s wrath has once again exposed the flaws in the federal government’s disaster response… after Obama said everything was going well.

So, both of these arguments don’t provide a strong case for an 11th hour shift in Obama’s favor. Michael Barone argues that if you look at the fundamentals, there is potential for a Romney landslide. I don’t think it will be a landslide, but I think Romney can win decisively. A recent poll , and it took a D+11 poll for CNN to achieve a tie between Obama and Mitt, and Mitt was winning independents by 22 points. The candidate the wins independents wins. Plain and simple.

Polls show a tied race in the battleground, Pennsylvania in play, and plenty of evidence to suggest that the results of tomorrow’s election will largely be decided on the ground game and voter ethusiasm. Fred Barnes makes the case for this better than I can. Romney is attacting huge crowds, bigger than Obama, and taking all factors into the equation, makes me very confident Mitt Romney will win tomorrow.

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42 thoughts on “Really? Sabato Says Obama Wins Handily

  1. neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 1:55 pm

    We will see tomorrow how far the US has fallen.
    If the nation re-elects the fake, fraud, kenyan again I will believe we are lost and doomed.
    If we elect Romney then there is still a small ray of hope

    • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 4:15 pm

      mmmmm mmmmm mmmmm

  2. Cluster November 5, 2012 / 3:21 pm

    The low expectations people have of Obama are shameful. Granted, Obama has no experience, has never run any business, and is a complete idiot, but he is still POTUS, and along with that position should come a high level of expectation. Showing up for a photo op in NJ in the wake of Sandy is hardly “doing a good job”. FEMA is failing miserably which should come as no surprise, and Obama quickly flew off to tell his base to vote for revenge.

    Secondly, the unemployment rate inching up to 7.9% IS HORRIBLE, and we should expect better.

    Just because Obama is inexperienced, not very good at what he does, and is a darling of the media, doesn’t mean we should we give him a pass.

    • dbschmidt November 5, 2012 / 5:14 pm

      For James to counter (shorten list)–this is a partial repost from a few threads ago.

      Doug Ross has even more than I “stole”–I have included a few but read the whole thing (and all of the source links) at:
      http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2011/06/president-barack-obamas-complete-list.html

      including;

      • First President to Violate the War Powers Act (Unilaterally Executing American Military Operations in Libya Without Informing Congress In the Required Time Period – Source: Huffington Post)
      • First President to Triple the Number of Warrantless Wiretaps of U.S. Citizens (Source: ACLU)
      • First President to Sue States for Enforcing Voter ID Requirements, Which Were Previously Ruled Legal by the U.S. Supreme Court (Source: CNN)
      • First President to Attempt to Block Legally-Required 60-Day Layoff Notices by Government Contractors Due to His Own Cuts to Defense Spending — Because The Notices Would Occur Before the Election. (Source: National Journal)
      • First President to issue an Executive Order implementing a “Racial Justice System”, a system that tries to achieve “racially equivalent outcomes” for crimes (Source: Daily Caller)
      • First President to Send Millions in Taxpayer Dollars to His Wife’s Former Employer (Source: White House Dossier)
      • First President to Preside Over a Cut to the Credit Rating of the United States Government (Source: Reuters)
      • First President to Bypass Congress and Implement the DREAM Act Through Executive Fiat (Source: Christian Science Monitor)
      • First President to Increase Food Stamp Spending By More Than 100% in Less Than Four Years (Source: Sen. Jeff Sessions)
      • First President to Spend a Trillion Dollars on ‘Shovel-Ready’ Jobs — and Later Admit There Was No Such Thing as Shovel-Ready Jobs (Source: President Obama during an early meeting of his ‘Jobs Council’)
      • First President to Threaten Insurance Companies After They Publicly Spoke out on How Obamacare Helped Cause their Rate Increases (Source: The Hill)
      • First President to Abrogate Bankruptcy Law to Turn Over Control of Companies to His Union Supporters (Source: Wall Street Journal)
      • First President to Sign a Law Requiring All Americans to Purchase a Product From a Third Party (Source: Wall Street Journal)
      • First President to Sue States For Enforcing Immigration Laws Passed by Congress (Source: The Arizona Republic newspaper)
      • First President to redistribute $26.5 billion of the taxpayers’ funds to his union supporters in the UAW (Source: Heritage Foundation)
      • First President to Attempt to Bully a Major Manufacturing Company Into Not Opening a Factory in a Right-to-Work State (Boeing’s facility in South Carolina – Source: Wall Street Journal)
      • First President to Endanger the Stability of the Electric Grid by Shutting Down Hundreds of Coal-Fired Plants Without Adequate Replacement Technologies (Source: National Electric Reliability Corporation – PDF)
      • First President to Lie Repeatedly to the American People About the Murder of a U.S. Ambassador and Three Other Diplomatic Personnel for Purely Political Reasons (Source: Roger Simon)
      • First President to Openly Defy a Congressional Order Not To Share Sensitive Nuclear Defense Secrets With the Russian Government (Sources: ABC News, Rep. Michael Turner)
      • First President to Leak Highly Classified Military and Intelligence Secrets to Hollywood In Order to Promote a Movie That Could Help His Reelection Campaign (Source: Judicial Watch)
      • First President to Terminate America’s Ability to Put a Man into Space (Sources: USA Today, ABC News)
      • First President to Insert Himself into White House Biographies of Past Presidents (Source: The New York Times).
      • First President to Golf 105 or More Times in His First Three-and-a-half Years in Office (Source: The Hill)

      As Casper did previously–acceptance is condoning. A non-answer is an answer. Proud of your President?

    • Retired Spook November 5, 2012 / 7:07 pm

      the unemployment rate at 7.9% is not horrible

      No President has been re-elected with UE anywhere close to that since FDR. The closest was Reagan in 1984 with 7.2%, but he had brought it down from around 11%, a much clearer trend than from 10.1 to 7.9. Plus Obama’s 7.9% wasn’t achieved by putting people back to work; it was achieved by lowering the labor force participation rate. There are actually fewer people employed than when Obama took office.

  3. TheWordpressGhost November 5, 2012 / 3:54 pm

    Romney has the momentum.

    Most Americans are tired of “change we cannot believe in.”

    We want time to heal from all the experiments and economic enslavement.

    ghost.

  4. TheWordpressGhost November 5, 2012 / 3:59 pm

    Reblogged this on thewordpressghost and commented:
    Everyone,

    I corresponded with a friend on Facebook.

    He felt that the Obama Administration was doing me a favor by pointing out ‘White Supremacists wanted me to become a terrorist.’

    WOW! This Administration spends billions on the islamic brotherhood so they can kill tens of thousands and torch hundreds of churches.

    AND it is OK to call be a ‘potential terrorist’ because I am white and a veteran.

    I think Blogs for Victory raise the same kinds of questions.

    Why? Does the Main Stream Media say that everything is in Obama’s favor when the economy is TERRIBLE.

    Black Unemployment is Great DEPRESSION levels.

    Total Unemployment is almost Great Depression levels.

    Don’t blame Obama, I get that. He had a rough 4 years.

    But, he focused on Gays in the Foxhole instead of jobs. He glorified the Muslim Brotherhood as he demonized Veterans.

    Don’t blame him.

    But, please vote away from economic enslavement …..

    Ghost.

    • TheWordpressGhost November 5, 2012 / 4:31 pm

      Well.

      I am not certain Romney is a better ‘Christian value’ person.

      What do you think?

      ghost.

    • fahad writes November 5, 2012 / 4:44 pm

      Ghost first of all you should respect religions. And then I think if you are civilized your vote will not be based upon whom has which religion, race, or colour.

      • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 4:48 pm

        cults formed by bloodthirsty pedophiles, and laced with insane evil cutthroats are NOT “religions”

      • Cluster November 5, 2012 / 4:49 pm

        99% of the black population voted for Obama in 2008. Was that vote based on color, or policy?

      • TheWordpressGhost November 5, 2012 / 4:50 pm

        Thank you for your comment!

        Well. I mostly agree. Having said that, there are groups within all countries which are dangerous.

        Muslim brotherhood and groups like them in the USA are dangerous to the people around them.

        Does that make more sense?

        Thank you for your comment.

        ghost.

      • fahad writes November 5, 2012 / 4:58 pm

        I never heard about this brotherhood group. what they have done?

      • TheWordpressGhost November 5, 2012 / 5:16 pm

        I am not entirely certain.

        The US Government has them down as a terrorist group, so if you or I support them, we are terrorists.

        But, the US Government gave them about a billion dollars as they took control (largest group) in Egypt.

        They have burned churches and killed people. How many is unknown to me. But, not one of the better examples of Islam.

        ghost.

      • fahad writes November 5, 2012 / 5:25 pm

        If someone does something wrong then that does not mean that his or her religion is responsible for that. If u stole something that does not mean ur religion guides u to do so. For the record, In Islam there is no such orders to burn other religious places. There are guidlines to respect other religions and other people whether black or white, as I do so. And u said those burnt religious places, then u should first ask those who financed them.

      • TheWordpressGhost November 6, 2012 / 12:01 am

        I think we agree!

        Then what do we do with those people?

      • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 4:50 pm

        fahad

        tell that to the 98% that DO vote for the color of skin.

      • fahad writes November 5, 2012 / 5:00 pm

        Neocon, see whatever bad others have done doesnot mean you have to do. And I don’t know who is the good one between these two candidates of urs.

      • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 5:09 pm

        do you live in a cave in tora bora faheed?

      • fahad writes November 5, 2012 / 5:14 pm

        lol.. thank u for disrespecting me. For ur knowledge, I live in a country which is one of the world’s richest country and most civilized also.

      • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 5:20 pm

        no problem faheed, I love disrespecting Morons.
        so you live in the USA?

      • fahad writes November 5, 2012 / 5:27 pm

        I refuse to reply u. As u don’t how to respect others. And because of that u have lost ur respect too.

      • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 5:22 pm

        faheed

        watch the video…….I posted here…….

        neocon01 November 5, 2012 at 5:04 pm #

      • fahad writes November 5, 2012 / 5:30 pm

        no thanks, u don’t deserve to know that where I am from.

      • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 5:54 pm

        faweed

        BFD

      • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 7:44 pm

        fahweed

        is dat U?

    • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 4:46 pm

      Jesse Jackson, Wright ‘arranged’ Obama marriage
      Chicago sources claim president was part of dark subculture

      The Chicago sources told WND the selection of Michelle Robinson for Obama was made by Jesse Jackson, and Jeremiah Wright agreed it would be a good combination.

      “It all relates back to Trinity United and to the Jesse Jackson orbit of blacks here in Chicago who gave Obama legitimacy and helped him establish his identity as a black man ‘from Chicago,’” Robyn explained.

      “Michelle came from a political family; she was intelligent even if she didn’t really like to work. Wright knew Obama was gay, but he needed the cover of a wife if he were to succeed in politics.”

      A current member of Trinity church who has known the Obamas for 20 years, “Carolyn,” confirmed Trinity “helped a lot of blacks get successful and connected.”

      “That’s what Wright did for Obama,” she claimed. “He connected Obama in the community, and he helped Obama hide his homosexuality.”

      According to Robyn, Jackson explained to Michelle that she would live a life of luxury once Obama was president, and that she never again would have to worry about money.

      “Michelle was nasty, and most straight guys would never be able to put up with her moods and temperament,” Robyn maintained. “But Obama really didn’t care. Michelle had the credentials and she looked the part. Obama wasn’t interested in her for sex.”

      http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/jesse-jackson-wright-arranged-obama-marriage/

    • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 4:53 pm

      ghost

      you cant figure that out for your self?

    • fahad writes November 6, 2012 / 3:18 pm

      Give them punishment as per country’s law

      • TheWordpressGhost November 8, 2012 / 11:26 pm

        Wouldn’t it be nice if countries’ laws were fair?

      • fahad writes November 9, 2012 / 6:30 am

        to improve that u have to join politics and then work hard for a position through which u can better the country’s law instead of just sitting and gossiping about politics.

      • TheWordpressGhost November 9, 2012 / 8:31 am

        Do you really think regular people can get a position in American politics?

      • fahad writes November 9, 2012 / 9:42 am

        I think if u tries hard, u can do anything. if there is a will, there is a way.

  5. Cluster November 5, 2012 / 4:36 pm

    James,

    I know you will be here to gloat if Obama wins, but I would like to see you here Wednesday if Obama loses, only because I want to hear your reasons as to why he lost. Can you do me that favor?

    • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 5:27 pm

      Good, I will enjoy seeing you eat crow while weeping for the kenyan.

  6. Cluster November 5, 2012 / 4:48 pm

    James,

    I have also made not that you consider 7.9% unemployment, trillion dollar deficits, 2% GDP growth, power shortages in NY a week after a storm, FEMA struggling to make water available a week after a storm, lying to the American public over the death of an Ambassador, telling people to vote for revenge, not knowing what shovel ready means, and not understanding bankruptcy laws to be an acceptable level of qualification for your president.

    The soft bigotry of low expectations to be sure.

  7. Cluster November 5, 2012 / 4:59 pm

    Why will Romney win? Because the tea party and the republican base are now pro Romney, not just anti Obama. Conservatives now believe in Romney and are excited to vote for him, and because of that he will win WI, where they elected a conservative Governor twice in 2010; he will win OH, where they elected a conservative Governor; he will win in PA because they elected a conservative Governor and Senator in 2010; he will win in FL because they elected a conservative Governor and Senator in 2010, and he will win in VA because they also elected a conservative Governor in 2010.

    Game. Set. Match.

  8. dbschmidt November 5, 2012 / 5:05 pm

    While every single poll on the planet predicts Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage of three to eleven points, the latest Rasmussen survey of party affiliation taken throughout October shows that Republicans enjoy a huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election.

    I know–Rasmussen. Only problem is is that Rasmussen has been accurate longer than Nate Silver has been alive.

  9. dbschmidt November 5, 2012 / 5:22 pm

    Employment Level Growth Under Obama Sets a Post-World War II Low

    “Left unmentioned in all the political crossfire is the post-World War II record the Obama administration is about to set on employment levels, and it isn’t a good one.

    In an effort to obtain a broader picture of how the President’s performance measures up to his post-World War II predecessors, I decided to measure monthly employment level growth for each presidential term dating back to Harry Truman.

    The average monthly employment level increase under President Obama is a paltry 0.019% monthly increase, earning him last place.

    Of course, with the population level rising at 0.899% yearly and an employment level rising just 0.228% yearly, a continuation of this lackluster growth spells economic disaster. In other worlds, the population is growing at nearly three times the rate of job creation! No post-World War II president has managed to achieve such dismal results.”

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/04/Employment-Level-Growth-Under-Obama-Sets-a-Post-World-War-II-Low

    I know–do not argue the facts just blame the messenger.

    • neocon01 November 5, 2012 / 5:25 pm

      db

      if you have time watch the video i linked to above…GREAT!!

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