Why Did Putin Do It? Because He Thinks He’ll Win

Later this year, on the 100th anniversary of the start of the First World War, I’m going to be writing an article about how I view that war – but I’ll give one spoiler right now:  the reason the war started, ultimately, was because the Germans thought they could win it.  That is why all wars start – one sides thinks they’ll win.  And not only thinks they’ll win, but thinks they’ll win in a walk over.  Wars aren’t started by people who are resigned to a difficult task with a doubtful outcome – wars are started by people who think they’ve got it sewn.

And Putin has sent troops in to Ukraine because he thinks he’ll win – and win rather easily.  Whether or not he’ll try to take over the whole country instead of the heavily-Russian eastern part remains to be seen.  But if Putin thinks he can grab the whole of Ukraine in an easy war, he’ll do it.  Now, why should Putin think that?

Well, first off, Ukraine is militarily not all that strong – a lot of their equipment is antiquated Soviet equipment (though upgraded a bit over the years), their armed forces are relatively small compared to Russia’s and, of course, a large minority of Ukrainians are Russians – not inclined to fight against the Russian army, even if not entirely favorable to coming under Russian rule. Furthermore, and probably decisively, Putin does not fear any serious response from anyone.  NATO?  Toothless.  EU?  Blind and toothless.  United States?  Distant and ruled over by fools who don’t understand how the world works.  The harshest thing on the table so far is that we’ll kick them out of the G-8.  Big whoop.  Like Putin will care too much about that – and like he won’t be invited back in a few years from now when tempers have cooled.

The only thing which would have stopped Putin is either a militarily powerful Ukraine or a United States not only powerful, but clearly willing to make Putin’s life miserable for years over the matter.  Neither being forthcoming, Putin moved.  Whether or not there will be some “deal” to smooth things over or whether it will go all the way to annexation by Russia remains to be seen – but Putin has just shown that he is in charge in that area of the world.  Ukraine knows that they can only go so far in offending Russia while other nations on Russia’s borders (especially the Baltic States) have been clearly warned that being tight with the west only offends Putin, while the west will do nothing concrete to oppose an offended Russia.

The worse problem is that the cat is really out of the bag, now.  Every two-bit tyrant out there who wants to grab himself a bit of geo-political territory knows that now is the time to start grabbing – with the United States effectively out of the picture as long as Democrats are in charge, the sky is the limit.

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7 thoughts on “Why Did Putin Do It? Because He Thinks He’ll Win

  1. shawny2011 March 3, 2014 / 2:36 pm

    This pattern keeps repeating. It’s like community organizing on a global basis with no concern for who gets killed. This administration goes into yet another country and stirs sedition against their leaders (good or bad). We already know from Egyptians what happened there and that it was not what a majority of Egyptians wanted. It’s what the Obama administration and others wanted and they used “responsibility to protect” as their excuse (something you don’t hear about any more and something we never did anyway) In the Ukraine, a minority was whipped up to overthrow a leader who was elected by the majority. We aided the destabilization of that country and the overthrow of yet another leader of a sovereign nation. Putin has not taken an offensive position although he may. He has said he does not recognize Ukraine’s new unelected leadership and he has responded to requests from Crimean leadership for protection. If this administration chooses to persist, this time there is formidable opposition. Frankly, I’m surprised there have not already been major repercussions against the U.S. There have been many times in our history when we went in to other countries to defend people and democracy. But that’s not what this administration is doing. It’s destabilizing and creating chaos and it’s supporting terrorism. One more thought, the only time Congress has agreed on anything during Obama’s presidency was when they voted unanimously to support the real freedom fighters in Iran who were being shot in the streets. Where was our responsibility to protect then and why did Obama do absolutely nothing?

    • Amazona March 3, 2014 / 3:54 pm

      Very well said, Shawny.

      ” It’s destabilizing and creating chaos…” But then that is the M.O. of the radical Left. On one hand it destabilizes enough to create fear and insecurity, which makes the promises of security offered by Leftism more appealing, and on the other it creates so much divisiveness that various groups that otherwise might work together are mutually distrustful and sometimes in conflict, meaning there is no organized opposition to the Leftist agenda.

      A nation or a world in chaos is a nation or a world just waiting for an organized movement to come in and pick up the pieces, after a satisfying game of “Let’s You And Him Fight”.

      I sure haven’t seen any “responsibility to protect” in the Sudan, or anywhere else in Africa, either. I remember Colin Powell telling Iranian dissidents that we would support them if they rose up, but years later when they did the Obamunists were AWOL.

      • shawny2011 March 3, 2014 / 9:35 pm

        Thanks Amazona. I think it’s a very sad statement to make that I’m much more concerned right now about what Obama is planning to do next than Putin. If all of this is a distraction to escalate the fear here and make the final play for global control, I’d expect a false flag which could be blamed on Putin or on North Korea, etc. Putin is a lot of scary things including an opportunist but he is not a globalist or Muslim sympathizer. I think we’re in a very tenuous situation economically and militarily by design and I don’t see any good outcome. The one thing I am sure of and the one thing that gives me hope is that when this nation is really in trouble, there is no left or right, no politics, no B.S. We still are a roll up your sleeves and help others people no matter how corrupt and destructive our leadership has become.

      • Retired Spook March 3, 2014 / 11:28 pm

        I think we’re in a very tenuous situation economically and militarily by design and I don’t see any good outcome.

        Join the club, Shawny. Several of us said 2014 was going to be an interesting year, and it looks like it’s not going to disappoint. The real question is, what will the WORLD look like by this time next year? Quite different, I imagine.

  2. dougq March 4, 2014 / 2:20 am

    Sadly, now I know what the communist countries felt like back then when the more capitalistic countries started taking over other nations.

    Obama is probably shaking in his boots, after all he’s worked so hard to build up this Marxist government here in the U.S. and to see has more capitalistic enemy in Putin start flexing his muscle.

  3. Mark Moser March 4, 2014 / 4:56 pm

    I hear people saying we are obligated to help the Ukraine after they gave up weapons for “assurances” from the West. To that I say bull. Well… that’s what happens when you look to others for your security. We have a history of disappointing those who look to us for their security recently. The fact remains when democrats are in power they don’t maintain strong military postures. They strip the military and build up social programs domestically, to ensure continued electoral support from the moochers. After two wars and five years of Obama we are in no position, geographically, militarily or economically to challenge the Russians on their turf. The world knows that, you can bet Putin does and we should too.

    We are in worse shape today than we were under Carter, who couldn’t even get the hostages back from college students in Iran. Heck, they couldn’t even get the assault team in position without the choppers breaking down in the desert and had to abort the rescue “attempt.” This situation proves that what looks good for us today may be really bad for us tomorrow.
    Europe has been quite content to allow us to shoulder the burden of their defense, since WWII. If war were to break out, under Obama, the Russians would be in Germany and threating France before we got out of barracks in sufficient numbers to make a stand. Drones won’t impress the Red Army!

    We are being pressed on all fronts, because we are weak and have been made so purposely by our own elected officials. Putin has taken the measure of our nation and found us wanting. What did those voting for hope and change think would happen? They better hope we have the time to change our leadership before someone else does it for us. Perhaps, we should elect leadership that actually wants America to succeed before we even consider going to war with Russia, especially in defense of a nation from the former USSR. If the Ukrainians won’t fight Russian for control of their own destinies, why should we?

    • M. Noonan March 5, 2014 / 1:11 am

      One thing certain, I’ll bet Ukraine is regretting giving up the nukes – and I’ll further bet that Poland’s government is querying its geeks on just how long it would take for Poland to build nuclear weapons.

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