So, Will 2014 Be a GOP Wave, or Not?

Here you’ve got analysis that the GOP only picks up a few seats and that works out to a win for Nancy Pelosi. Here you’ve got other analysis which indicates the GOP might get its largest majority since the 1928 election. So, which is it?

Beats all heck out of me. Real Clear Politics currently has the GOP with 47 Senate seats in the bag, the Democrats with 44 and 9 toss-ups, with the likely outcome as of today being 52 GOPers and 48 Democrats (that includes us losing Kansas, by the way – which I don’t think we will, in the end). But another way to read it is that the GOP could end up with as many as 56 Senate seats – an 11 seat gain. That would, indeed, be a wave.

While there is trouble for the GOP on the gubernatorial front (we’re definitely going to lose Pennsylvania and we’ll probably lose Kansas), there is also Democrat governor Hickenlooper’s likely defeat to counter that – and Hickenlooper was supposed to be the perfect person to transition a purple State to blue…now he’s probably going to lose, and maybe take down Democrat Senator Udall with him…all because he’s liberal.  Not fanatically liberal, but just liberal…and that is being rejected in Colorado, to all appearances (and this can’t make Team Hillary comfortable about 2016 – she’s a female Hickenlooper).

I really don’t know where this is heading. But there are some ingredients for a blow out – of course, we must remember the GOP’s penchant for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory (and talk of Jeb or Romney running in 2016 is the GOP Establishment’s way of saying “we’d rather have Hillary than Walker”).

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9 thoughts on “So, Will 2014 Be a GOP Wave, or Not?

  1. Amazona September 27, 2014 / 7:24 pm

    I think rebellion against a Jeb Bush candidacy would be a firestorm even the Establishment could not ignore. Romney at least has the advantage of the obvious answer to the question “In 2014, didn’t you wish we had elected Romney instead of Obama?” I think the objections to Romney will have diminished to some extent now that the dust has had time to settle. The scorn heaped upon those who did not vote for him for religious reasons may have had some impact, and we have had plenty of time to learn the hard and brutal lesson of what happens when you let the awful guy win because the better guy was not perfect.

    Last time around Hickenlooper did not run on anything but being cute—-I called it the Howdy Doody campaign. He flaunted his freckles while wearing a very tiny straw cowboy hat, riding a grocery store put-in-a-dime horsie, he jumped out of an airplane, etc. He ran as a Nice Guy. He is trying the same thing this time, studiously avoiding anything even close to a platform or policies, just saying “Hey, things are going pretty good, aren’t they?” and letting surrogates savage his opponent with attack ads. But he supported the restrictive gun law legislation that got two state officials recalled and led to a third resigning before she got canned, so Hick could appoint a Dem to replace her instead of having a Republican elected in her place. When a vicious killer sentenced to death was on the brink of execution Hick did not take a real stand, but just issued a temporary reprieve, keeping the killer on Death Row so someone else could make the decision. People on both sides of the capital punishment issue are ticked off, because he lacked the backbone to take a stand and just punted, leaving the real decision making to someone else.

    But Republicans will always have an uphill battle until they start defining the campaigns as the choice between a Constitutional government and a sprawling, infinitely expansive, intrusive and powerful Central Authority. They will let the opposition go after them on things like abortion and birth control without ever explaining that the Constitution puts neither in the hands of Congress or the presidency. They will sit around till the Left plays a tune and then try to dance to it.

    • M. Noonan September 27, 2014 / 10:59 pm

      Yeah, if Jeb were to get the nomination, I’d be hard pressed to find a reason for voting GOP in 2016 – and keep in mind that I voted for Jeb in his first, unsuccessful, run for Florida governor in 1994. Its not that I dislike the man, but that he’s just waaaaay too Establishment. He’d be miles better than Hillary, of course, but I also think he’s a sure-loser to Hillary…him being the nominee would just allow the Democrats to spend six months running against W rather than spending six months trying to defend the Obama record and convince people that some how or other, Hillary would be different.

      I still have a soft spot in my heart for Romney, but I’d rather he weren’t the nominee – for the same reason I didn’t want him as the nominee in 2012: while he’d be a fine President, he just doesn’t have it in him to tackle the crucial issues facing us. Walker definitely does. Cruz definitely does. My long-standing favorite for 2016, Bobby Jindal, is starting to mark out territory as a major reformer. Whomever it is, we’d best go with someone who can tackle the beast – and in spite of my fondness for Jindal, Walker is doing more in this area than anyone else. If he survives his re-election fight (and I think he will), then a Walker-Martinez ticket in 2016 might be our best bet.

      • Cluster September 28, 2014 / 11:20 am

        I don’t think Susanna Martinez is ready for prime time.

  2. Amazona September 27, 2014 / 7:27 pm

    And Udall is running as the Not-Gardner candidate—not on any reason to vote for him, but just on reasons to think Cory Gardner is evil and sexist and wants to ban birth control. Gardner is running a clean campaign that still points out that Udall is depending on scare tactics, and voted with Obama 99% of the time. I am hoping Gardner will close with ads coming out and calling Udall a liar, which is very clear to anyone who pays any attention.

    • Cluster September 28, 2014 / 9:19 am

      All Democrats lie. It’s who they are. And that fact must be pointed out. Democrats are incapable of running on anything positive or constructive largely because they have screwed everything up, so their only hope is that the electorate will believe their lies. I find it incredible that so many people still do hold them harmless for the numerous lies they have shamelessly told over the last 6 years.

    • Cluster September 28, 2014 / 11:14 am

      One undeniable reason how you know they are lying? They NEVER admit they were wrong, or miscalculated. WH Dep. Sec Advisor Tony Blanken was just on Fox essentially saying that Obama has been right about Iraq and the ME all along. Really?

  3. Retired Spook September 28, 2014 / 9:17 am

    Predicting outcomes of elections, even as close as 5 weeks out, has proven to be somewhat of a fools errand in recent years. This certainly has the makings of a GOP wave except that the GOP establishment has forgotten to participate, preferring instead to protect their power and the status quo. I live in a pretty conservative area, and I’m just not sensing that people are really all that upset with the direction the country is going. Now that could be because so many people are just struggling to survive. There are around 93 million Americans of working age who are not employed in a full-time job, but I think an awful lot of them don’t perceive the Republican Party as a force that’s really interesting in changing that dynamic, and they don’t perceive the Democrat Party as being particularly responsible for their plight. I hope to be pleasantly surprised on the morning of November 5th. And thus endith my brief Sunday morning rant.

    • Cluster September 28, 2014 / 11:26 am

      That’s a pretty calm rant Spook, you can do better than that. I agree that overall the GOP candidates are not exactly stirring up the base, or putting forth bold ideas, which is a mistake but I also think that overall we do have strong candidates who are much more palatable than years past and should win. We do however need to put forward some aggressive ideas to put many of those 93 million Americans back to work and I think Jindal’s America Next plan is a good starting point.

      I also want to say that I am still a huge Romney fan and would very much like to see him as President.

      • Retired Spook September 28, 2014 / 11:46 am

        I share your admiration of Romney. Was/is he the perfect Conservative? Not by any stretch of the imagination, but I think he a man who knows what has to be done to get the country back on track and knows how to get it done. That separates him from a lot of “politicians” in my book.

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