2014 Mid-Terms (RED WAVE!!!!) Open Thread

Ok, so here we go – the Big Day. Or, as Democrats have put it over the last couple days: The Day The Racist, Sexist, Homophobic GOP Doesn’t Really Win Because We Never Cared About This Election, Anyways. So There!

Will it be a blow out? Not sure. The thing to look for if that is happening is a late call in Virginia and/or a Brown win in New Hampshire – if that happens, then things are going rather well for the GOP. Here’s What I think will happen:

The GOP will win on election night the Senate contests in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Colorado. Arkansas and Alaska. We’ll eventually win Georgia and Louisiana, as well, but both of those might go to a run-off. I’ll go out on a small limb and say we survive in Kansas, though the bogus “Independent” Orman might be able to eke out a win as the Republican Governor of Kansas loses, and thus drags down the whole GOP ticket in that State. For those doing the quick math, that means on election night, even with a Kansas loss, the GOP gets to 51 Senators – 53 once the run-offs are done, and Georgia just might be decided on election night. Given that the GOP will almost certainly win an outright majority on election night, even Orman might decide that he likes the GOP just fine for caucusing purposes.

There is still, by the way, a realistic chance for the GOP to pad its total if we pull out the win in North Carolina and surge to victory in New Hampshire. NC is real tight and could go either way while for all of Brown’s vigorous campaign, New Hampshire is further out of reach…but a big GOP wave, if it really shows up, could drag both those States into our column. That happens and after all is said and done, the GOP comes away from Campaign 2014 with 55 Senate seats. A 10 seat gain would be astonishing, but Democrats will still claim it means nothing and now we’re all Ready for Hillary!

For the House, I’m thinking 244 is the eventual GOP total – though a big GOP wave could get the Republicans up to as high as 250.

Governorships – its a bad year for us: we’re pretty sure of losing Kansas, and absolutely sure of losing Pennsylvania. We might also come up short in Florida and even Michigan is looking a little iffy. Walker will win in Wisconsin – and thus make himself the logical choice for the GOP nomination in 2016. State legislatures will fall our way, but the only prediction I’ll make is the Nevada State Senate going GOP – the others I just don’t know enough about (and there’s an outside chance that the GOP will win the Nevada Assembly, as well, though that is longish-shot…but Governor Sandoval has done a great job of rebuilding the GOP in Nevada…I figured him for a run against Reid in 2016, but word I’ve heard is that he’d rather have bleach poured into his eyes than be a Senator…so, he’ll either angle for a VP slot or he might shock everyone by tossing his hat into the Presidential ring).

What do you think will happen?

UPDATE: John Hindraker gives us all a downer to start our day:

…Mitt Romney’s pollsters were famously wrong in 2012. They thought Mitt was going to win because they failed to foresee how extraordinarily effective the Democrats’ ground game would be; therefore, they underestimated Democratic turnout. The great unknown in this year’s election is, how many Democrats will the party be able to drive to the polls, notwithstanding that Obama is not on the ballot and things have gone poorly for the administration and for Senate Democrats over the last two years? The reality is that no pollster knows the answer to that question…

Everything does depend on who actually shows up to vote – we do have some good indicators in early voting that lots of GOPers are showing up, not quite so many Democrats. But this is now Election Day, and if the Democrats have their GOTV on warp drive, things can come out very different from what the polls say. We’ll just have to wait and see.

UPDATE II: Just wow! Happy dance. Might get to 54!

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21 thoughts on “2014 Mid-Terms (RED WAVE!!!!) Open Thread

  1. Retired Spook November 4, 2014 / 9:48 am

    There is still, by the way, a realistic chance for the GOP to pad its total if we pull out the win in North Carolina and surge to victory in New Hampshire. NC is real tight and could go either way while for all of Brown’s vigorous campaign, New Hampshire is further out of reach

    Too bad the Dems were able to conceal this information until the day before the election.

    On the Senate side, I’m not nearly as confident as you are. There are just so many races within the margin of error and ripe for Democrat cheating. I think the Donks will win at least 75% of the races that are decided by less than 2%. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the GOP gets to a tie (50/50) in the Senate. There was simply no forward thinking vision within the GOP leading up to this election, and considering that they didn’t run on anything except being against Obama, even a 4 seat pickup would be a noteable accomplishment. The one race that no one seems to be talking about, and, to me, the biggest head-scratcher of all, is Stuart Smalley’s cruising to re-election in Minnesota. After the way he won the first time and given his mediocre first term performance, I would have thought that would have been one of the GOP’s primary targets.

    On the House side, I think your numbers are about right. I’d be surprised to see a pickup of less than 10 seats, just based on historical norms.

    • M. Noonan November 4, 2014 / 12:50 pm

      Spook,

      It could well come out like that – we’ll see if race-baiting and such is enough to drag enough Democrats to the polls (with a little voter fraud added to the mix) to keep the Senate in Democrat hands. Brit Hume was on Fox this morning stating that if the GOP doesn’t win the Senate, it’ll trigger a real civil war in the Republican Party – and I can’t disagree with that. The Establishment has had things pretty much all its own way in 2014 and if they can’t pull out a GOP Senate majority in this climate, then they are just no good. But we’ll see how it comes out.

      • Retired Spook November 4, 2014 / 1:00 pm

        Brit Hume was on Fox this morning stating that if the GOP doesn’t win the Senate, it’ll trigger a real civil war in the Republican Party

        I caught part of that Brit Hume segment. IIRC, he also said that if the GOP does win back the Senate it’s likely that the GOP establishment will brag that they did it without the Tea Party, and tell the Tea Party to piss up a rope. That would also trigger a civil war within the Republican Party.

        Our local Tea Party group is having an election pizza party tonight. I realize our rural Indiana Tea Party group probably isn’t an accurate reflection of national Tea Party sentiment, but it’ll still be interesting to see what the mood is regarding the future of the GOP. Rush was saying yesterday that the GOP establishment’s throwing the Tea Party under the bus after the 2010 election will probably go down as one of the greatest political blunders in the history of the country. I don’t disagree. If they don’t embrace some basic conservative principles after this election, they’ve likely lost my time, money and vote for the foreseeable future.

      • M. Noonan November 4, 2014 / 1:10 pm

        It is a problem – Rush is right when he says that Establishment GOPers have no fundamental problem with Big Government. It is true – they have made their lives in Big Government and have, often, revolving-door between Big Government and Big Corporation (Democrats are even worse in this area – complete Ruling Class hacks). To such people, the idea that you’d attack your own feeding trough doesn’t have any appeal. Those of us who are not of Big Government or Big Corporation take a different view – and as we’re 100% right about the impending destruction of the United States if we don’t get a handle on this, we’ve really got to press the issue. But the bottom line is that we have to press it with at least 30% of our electoral base either not understanding the problem, or being part of the problem, themselves.

        I think the TEA Party has done a wonderful job in getting a lot more conservatism back into the GOP – in order to beat back TEA Party challengers, after all, the Establishment has had to commit to TEA Party policies. But what we’re missing is the national leader who can take all the elements and fuse them into a genuine political majority which will be committed to genuine and deep reform without alienating parts of the base while still appealing to a broader electorate. The more I think about it – while still thinking Jindal is best – our candidate might just have to be Walker.

  2. Retired Spook November 4, 2014 / 10:14 am

    One of the funniest headlines I’ve seen in a long time.

    Vice President Joe Biden says he thinks Democrats will retain control of the Senate after Tuesday’s midterms, but he acknowledged to CNN on Monday that if he’s wrong, the White House will be willing to compromise with a GOP-controlled Congress.

    “We have to be more direct and clear about exactly what it is we’re looking to do,” Biden said in an interview with CNN’s Gloria Borger that was aired on “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.”

    “Look, we’re — we’re ready to compromise,” Biden said.

    “I think they’re gonna be inclined — because the message from the people, and I’m gettin’ it all over the country, is they’re tired of Washington not being able to do anything,” Biden said.

    I do hope the GOP regains the Senate, just so they can rub it in this a$$wipes face.

  3. Retired Spook November 4, 2014 / 12:29 pm

    Just got back from voting. We actually had to stand in line, which, considering we don’t have any hotly contested races, is a good sign. The poll workers said there had been a stead stream of voters since the polls opened at 6AM. Now we wait.

  4. Retired Spook November 4, 2014 / 5:32 pm

    News reports all afternoon from Fort Wayne that turnout is higher than expected, and several precincts have had to have more machines brought in. That’s always a good sign.

    • Cluster November 4, 2014 / 7:18 pm

      Here we go. Hopefully this is a night where we say goodbye to Harry Reid and a dysfunctional Senate.

  5. dbschmidt November 4, 2014 / 9:45 pm

    Hopefully the high turnout here in NC will send Sen. Hagen packing. Nevertheless, I am watching the two houses of Congress and Governors to see what may be this countries future.

    Needless to say or maybe needed to be said-no one on the ballot earned my vote today; however, I spent nearly an hour waiting in line because this latest generation of vets desired that and much more.

    If the Republicans (RINOs and others) screw this up whatever the outcome we will know which side of the tipping point America is seated.

  6. dbschmidt November 4, 2014 / 11:30 pm

    Deserved… Auto-correct should be banished.

  7. Amazona November 4, 2014 / 11:59 pm

    Looking good in Colorado, with Cory Gardner declared the winner over Mark ‘The Uterus” Udall, whose campaign was one long gynecological adventure based on the absurd claim that Cory Gardner would single handedly BAN BIRTH CONTROL (he must have been thinking of the unilateral edicts of King Barry and thinking anyone could do the same thing) and saying if the government doesn’t pay for something it is, by definition, DENYING ACCESS to that something.

    Still too close to call for governor, with only one percentage point between Beauprez and the Looper, so we’ll have to see how that plays out. Jared Polis, radical Lefty from up north, has had a real fight on his hands, which is a good sign even if he does win.

    • M. Noonan November 5, 2014 / 1:21 am

      We’ve done well in NV – already got the governorship and have flipped the Senate – still an outside chance of getting the State Assembly an NV-04 Congressional district.

  8. Retired Spook November 5, 2014 / 12:21 am

    I’m not going to wait up for the Alaska senate results, but it looks like the Republicans will not only hold on to the seats they needed to (Kansas and Georgia), but will come pretty close to running the table in all the close races where they challenged Democrat incumbents. Even a couple races, New Hampshire and Virginia are much closer than anyone anticipated and still have an outside chance of going GOP. There will be a run-off in Louisiana in early December, but the GOP candidate has the edge, having garnered more votes than Mary Landrieu tonight. It looks like the prediction of a pickup of 10 seats in the House is going to be very close. Walker and Snyder both won re-election to the governorships of Wisconsin and Michigan respectively, and John Kasich won re-election in Ohio by a wide margin. I’ll sleep good tonight.

    And the Iowa Senate race has just been called for Joni Ernst, putting the GOP at 51. The only uncalled races at this point that are still up in the air are New Hampshire, N. Carolina, Virginia, Alaska and Louisiana, which all have Democrat incumbents. Even if the Dems hold on in all five, the GOP still controls the Senate. Any win/s in those races just adds to the GOP advantage.

    North Carolina just called for Republican Tom Tillis — GOP at 52.

    GOP picks up governorships in Illinois and Massachusetts. Wave bye bye, Donkeys, and don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. Adios Harry.

    Good night all.

    • M. Noonan November 5, 2014 / 1:20 am

      I’m stunned about the governors races – not only surviving in FL, but winning in MD! Maryland! And picking up a House seat there, as well. NH Senate didn’t work and it’ll be dicey for us to get the VA Senate (and now the RNC is kicking itself for not putting more resources in), but this is a stunning rejection of the Democrat party.

      • Retired Spook November 5, 2014 / 10:05 am

        There was quite a bit of talk by Democrats that governorships were going to be the salve for the wounds inflicted by losing the Senate. Losing the governor races in 3 deep blue states is more than stunning; it’s a stark rebuke of Liberal policies. I think an awful lot of people finally reached the point where they said, “ENOUGH!!”

        Votes will trickle in from rural areas of Alaska for days, maybe even a couple weeks. If Sullivan’s roughly 8,000 vote lead holds up, that will make 53, and if Cassidy wins the run-off in Louisiana, that will be 54. Gillespie has still not conceded Virginia, and is only behind by a little over .5%. I’m pleasantly surprised to admit that my fears of the GOP snatching defeat from the jaws of victory were unfounded.

        Now the icing on the cake would be Harry Reid resigning from the Senate after his colleagues fail to elect him Minority Leader.

      • M. Noonan November 5, 2014 / 1:22 pm

        Can’t see him resigning even if Schumer carries out a coup d’etat. That would mean Sandoval would appoint a Republican replacement. But a nice, little fight between two of the nastiest Democrats in the Senate would be fun to watch.

  9. Amazona November 5, 2014 / 11:10 am

    Evidently the Looper has squeaked by challenger Bob Beauprez to retain the governor’s seat in Colorado, but he has a Republican statehouse, and winning by a point is hardly a mandate. It may even call for a recount—-I haven’t been following this morning’s news.

    As for Harry, he may resign or he may not, but we just stuck a fork in him, and we know he’s done. The first thing this new Congress is going to do is bring out those bills he has been refusing to allow to the floor for a vote, and that ought to make it clear just what a lying weasel he has been.

    • M. Noonan November 5, 2014 / 1:17 pm

      I’m not sure what Reid will do – there are rumblings in Nevada already. The Democrats were BLOWN OUT in Nevada – we didn’t just beat the Democrats here, we crushed them. Reid and Rep. Dina Titus are the only two Democrats left to hold power in the State of Nevada outside the local level. All credit to Governor Sandoval – as one Nevada pundit put it, he could have slept at his desk and won with 55% of the vote, but he put together a team which wiped out the Democrats. He wound up with a bit more than 70% of the vote, himself…and his coat-tails did the rest. To be sure, the Democrats did make the strategic mistake of not trying to find a credible challenger to Sandoval, but still an amazing victory. I’ve been told Sandoval doesn’t want to be a Senator – but a lot of GOP pressure will be on him over the next year to challenge Reid…while a fight against Reid still won’t be a walk in the park, one has to figure that a man who got 70% of the vote State-wide is well-positioned to take out a senior Democrat who is now badly tarnished in the State. On the other hand, maybe Sandoval harbors ambitions for a different office in DC? Time will tell.

  10. yourlifefulfillment November 5, 2014 / 3:30 pm

    Absolutely incredible. I am psyched at the power that the GOP has accumulated since last night!

    Obama is not happy at all – I think everyone can guarantee that. He seems to get so, so angry when things don’t go his way…because that’s all he is – he’s a hateful, mean-spirited and vicious liberal.

    Here’s more food for thought:

    With about 246 seats now in the House of Representatives – think of the firewall that the GOP now has against the Dems in the House of Reps. Even if, let’s say, in 2016, the GOP loses the Senate, they will still very likely retain control of the house.

    The GOP has made one hell of a comeback. Now let’s stick it to ’em and make sure they do what they were sent to DC to do!

    Onward and Upward!

    Ricky

    • M. Noonan November 6, 2014 / 1:39 am

      It’s a stunning win – now, let’s just hope the GOP doesn’t go all GOP and louse it up!

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