Ok, so here we go – the Big Day. Or, as Democrats have put it over the last couple days: The Day The Racist, Sexist, Homophobic GOP Doesn’t Really Win Because We Never Cared About This Election, Anyways. So There!
Will it be a blow out? Not sure. The thing to look for if that is happening is a late call in Virginia and/or a Brown win in New Hampshire – if that happens, then things are going rather well for the GOP. Here’s What I think will happen:
The GOP will win on election night the Senate contests in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Colorado. Arkansas and Alaska. We’ll eventually win Georgia and Louisiana, as well, but both of those might go to a run-off. I’ll go out on a small limb and say we survive in Kansas, though the bogus “Independent” Orman might be able to eke out a win as the Republican Governor of Kansas loses, and thus drags down the whole GOP ticket in that State. For those doing the quick math, that means on election night, even with a Kansas loss, the GOP gets to 51 Senators – 53 once the run-offs are done, and Georgia just might be decided on election night. Given that the GOP will almost certainly win an outright majority on election night, even Orman might decide that he likes the GOP just fine for caucusing purposes.
There is still, by the way, a realistic chance for the GOP to pad its total if we pull out the win in North Carolina and surge to victory in New Hampshire. NC is real tight and could go either way while for all of Brown’s vigorous campaign, New Hampshire is further out of reach…but a big GOP wave, if it really shows up, could drag both those States into our column. That happens and after all is said and done, the GOP comes away from Campaign 2014 with 55 Senate seats. A 10 seat gain would be astonishing, but Democrats will still claim it means nothing and now we’re all Ready for Hillary!
For the House, I’m thinking 244 is the eventual GOP total – though a big GOP wave could get the Republicans up to as high as 250.
Governorships – its a bad year for us: we’re pretty sure of losing Kansas, and absolutely sure of losing Pennsylvania. We might also come up short in Florida and even Michigan is looking a little iffy. Walker will win in Wisconsin – and thus make himself the logical choice for the GOP nomination in 2016. State legislatures will fall our way, but the only prediction I’ll make is the Nevada State Senate going GOP – the others I just don’t know enough about (and there’s an outside chance that the GOP will win the Nevada Assembly, as well, though that is longish-shot…but Governor Sandoval has done a great job of rebuilding the GOP in Nevada…I figured him for a run against Reid in 2016, but word I’ve heard is that he’d rather have bleach poured into his eyes than be a Senator…so, he’ll either angle for a VP slot or he might shock everyone by tossing his hat into the Presidential ring).
What do you think will happen?
UPDATE: John Hindraker gives us all a downer to start our day:
…Mitt Romney’s pollsters were famously wrong in 2012. They thought Mitt was going to win because they failed to foresee how extraordinarily effective the Democrats’ ground game would be; therefore, they underestimated Democratic turnout. The great unknown in this year’s election is, how many Democrats will the party be able to drive to the polls, notwithstanding that Obama is not on the ballot and things have gone poorly for the administration and for Senate Democrats over the last two years? The reality is that no pollster knows the answer to that question…
Everything does depend on who actually shows up to vote – we do have some good indicators in early voting that lots of GOPers are showing up, not quite so many Democrats. But this is now Election Day, and if the Democrats have their GOTV on warp drive, things can come out very different from what the polls say. We’ll just have to wait and see.
UPDATE II: Just wow! Happy dance. Might get to 54!